2026-01-01 05:23:06

Ethereum is now interesting on the 1-hour chart. Look at that candlestick, Bollinger Bands, moving averages, and the MA are all squeezed together, with the price repeatedly pulling within this narrow range, as both bulls and bears are fighting. Although the two lines of MACD are still above the zero line, the histogram has already turned negative (-1.36), indicating that the short-term upward momentum is waning and a pullback should be watched for.

But this often signals a period of accumulation. Here's how I see it:

On-chain, the main addresses have been continuously accumulating over the past 24 hours, with a net inflow of about 120,000 ETH. The key point is that exchange reserves have fallen to their lowest level this year, and selling pressure has significantly decreased. This kind of signal is reliable.

There is also support from the news side. Options trading for Ethereum ETFs will open this week, plus the Layer2 ecosystem's locked-up amount has already surpassed $30 billion, making the fundamentals quite solid.

Technically, the 1-hour chart still holds the EMA30 support line. Once the MACD histogram on the hourly chart shrinks and turns bullish, a rebound is very likely to directly push toward the previous high.

Here's my current thinking. If the price can hold above the lower boundary of 3150, I consider this a shakeout, and I will add positions in batches. Once the 1-hour candle closes above the midline and MACD shows a golden cross, I expect the rebound target to be around 3450-3500.

The risk control bottom line is clear: if it falls below 3100, stop-loss is necessary. At that point, the structure for a second bottom will be clearer.

In short, the longer the consolidation lasts, the more explosive the final breakout will be. The accumulation on the Ethereum chain plus the technical consolidation are nearing the end. My judgment is that within the next 1 to 2 trading days, a bullish reversal should occur. Those who truly trade are the ones who find high-probability setups amid this uncertainty, rather than blindly following the trend.

ETH1,46%

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digital_archaeologist

· 13h ago

The main force is accumulating 120,000 coins, and the exchange reserves are at a new low. This signal is indeed solid. I'll follow up if it stays above 3150.

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CryptoGoldmine

· 01-01 05:53

The signal of main force accumulating 120,000 coins is indeed solid, and the exchange reserves hitting a yearly low also indicate something is happening. Layer2 locking 30 billion, and the logic of the computing network also applies to Ethereum, driven by ecological iteration ROI cycles. If 3150 can't hold, wait for the second test. This stop-loss position is a bit particular, indicating that the author's understanding of risk control is quite good. However, the trigger condition of MACD histogram shrinking and turning red, compared to simply looking at on-chain data, I still trust reserve volume and other hard indicators more. The deployment opportunity is indeed there; it all depends on the market trend in the next 1-2 trading days.

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MissedAirdropBro

· 01-01 05:51

Damn, the big players are quietly accumulating again --- EMA30 is still holding, this time is really different --- I'll sell if it breaks 3100, too lazy to wait for a second test --- Will ETF options open this week? Then I really need to be optimistic --- The longer the consolidation, the more explosive the breakout, I've heard this theory for years --- Net inflow of 120,000 coins, exchange reserves are bottoming out, this signal is indeed solid --- There should be some movement in less than 2 days, betting on 3450 --- Always feel like this shakeout isn't that simple, probably quite a few people cutting losses --- MACD is still in negative territory, what's the rush, wait for the bars to turn red first --- Link2 has surpassed 30 billion, right? The fundamentals are indeed decent --- Hold the one-hour chart and buy in batches, this approach is still safe --- I'll buy above 3150, and sell below 3100, it's that simple --- They're gearing up again, always talking about accumulation, when will it actually break out --- The big players are accumulating, I have to accumulate too, waiting for the rebound moment --- Basically, it's a gamble on the golden cross, if it doesn't happen, it will explode

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SchrodingerPrivateKey

· 01-01 05:49

It sounds like you're waiting for that moment. It is indeed quite interesting. The main force is accumulating, and the selling pressure on the exchange has eased. This signal is quite clear, but we still need to see if it can hold above 3150.

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MissingSats

· 01-01 05:46

The main force is accumulating, and this signal is indeed worth paying attention to. The exchange reserves hitting a new low is I think the key point; the selling pressure has really decreased. --- If I can't hold 3150, I'll admit defeat. There's no need to stubbornly hold on. --- Will ETF options open this week? That does have a catalyst, but don’t be fooled by the fundamentals; the technicals are the real movers. --- Before MACD turns positive, I’ll stay on the sidelines and just watch. No rush. --- I've heard too many times about building momentum. Is this really the case, or is another wave of sharp decline coming? Who can say for sure? Anyway, I set stop-losses so I won’t panic. --- The net inflow of 120,000 ETH is quite large, but could it be smart money trapping the shorts? These days, you have to be cautious about everything. --- Basically, wait for the golden cross. Don’t mess around before it happens.

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CryptoTarotReader

· 01-01 05:32

The main force is accumulating, and the exchange reserves have fallen to a yearly low, which is indeed a strong signal. Waiting for the MACD to turn green. If 3150 can't hold, then it's time to exit, there's nothing more to say. This wave of shakeout feels almost over, holding on for too long really requires a big move. The ETF options opening and Layer2 are actually well-prepared in terms of fundamentals. The Bollinger Bands are so tight, once there's a breakout, it will be interesting to see who moves first. EMA30 is holding very firmly, I believe the rebound can reach around 3500. Really shouldn't be so indecisive, just go in and get it over with—either profit or learn a lesson.

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FantasyGuardian

· 01-01 05:23

The main force is accumulating and the exchange is closing positions, this signal is indeed solid, but I still have to wait for the MACD to turn green before I dare to get on board. Wait, is ETF options opening this week? I need to do some calculations. If 3150 can't hold, I'll run; there's no room for negotiation on stop-loss. Honestly, it's too early to talk about target prices now. First, see if it can stabilize above EMA30. If this wave really pushes to 3500, I'll laugh to death, but the risk control bottom line is to cut losses if it falls below 3100. I agree with this.

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