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A project recently raised $13.5 million, which sounds like a lot, but a closer look at the data reveals some interesting points — a total supply of 1 billion tokens, with only 7.1% in circulation. The project team even tried to sell directly to retail investors at sky-high prices, but no one bought.
These types of tokens share a common characteristic: their valuation basis is floating. When the price is pushed up, the risk of a subsequent sell-off increases exponentially. Why? Because with such low circulating supply, once large holders decide to cash out, there aren't enough buyers to absorb the sell-off. A large number of tokens are also locked in the project team’s hands, which is like a sword hanging overhead — it looks quiet, but it could fall at any moment.
The divergence between fundraising valuation and secondary market valuation often signals risk. Projects with low circulation rates are easy to hype, but in the long run, this structure is destined to undergo adjustments.