Why did the power transfer in Venezuela not trigger a sharp reaction in the investment market?

Gramercy Funds fund manager Robert Koenigsberger pointed out in the latest market analysis that many investors have a significant discrepancy between their expectations of changes in Venezuela's situation and the actual developments. Although a change in power occurred, it did not bring about the dramatic institutional shocks that some market participants imagined.

What does this reflect? On one hand, investors tend to overestimate the impact of geopolitical events; on the other hand, the market's understanding of the pace of change is biased. Koenigsberger believes that understanding the gradual nature of political change, rather than simply betting on abrupt shifts, is the correct approach to geopolitical investing.

This case reminds us: major institutional changes are often not as fast as imagined, and market pricing also requires more patience.