#2026币圈Flag

Playing with small funds in the first level—let’s take $10,000 as an example. Don’t think about turning it around right away. The vast majority of people make a fatal mistake right from the start: they treat $10,000 as a one-time opportunity, rather than 20–50 chances.

What is the true win rate in the primary market?
Projects that can actually reach 5–10M or more: 5%–10%. They can give you 2–3 times returns, 15%–20%. The rest either stagnate and die slowly or go straight to Rug Pull. This means you’re not choosing which one will definitely rise; you’re betting on a probability distribution.

The most core rule for single-position sizing: I set a strict rule for myself, which many veteran primary market players accept as a baseline: for any primary project, the position should not exceed 1%–3% of total funds. Don’t always look at a single coin with thousands of dollars; those thousands are less than 1% of their total holdings. You can’t just follow how much others are investing.

Using $10,000 as an example:
Aggressive: $500 per trade (5%)
Conservative: $200–300 per trade (2%–3%)
Every trade must have a strict stop-loss. This is the most suitable position size for a $10,000 principal. You might think it’s small, but you need to understand one thing: in the primary market, losses are not -10%, but -50% to -90%, or even zero.

Don’t start with the idea of turning things around in the primary market. Once you set your goal to flip your position, all your operations will start to distort. You’ll unconsciously see someone on Twitter calling signals, and then you’ll lose control, increasing your position. It begins with wanting to buy a little more, then buying again after a dip, repeating this process until all your principal is invested in the same coin. Once this happens, risk is already out of control.

Of course, you can turn things around in the primary market, but turning around is never the starting point. It only happens after you stabilize your win rate, learn to diversify, and admit mistakes. “People who start out aiming to flip are often not even qualified to participate in the next round.”

Veteran primary market players don’t consider whether a coin can turn around, nor do they bet more than 50% of their principal on a single coin. They only care about three things: Is this a reasonable bet? Will failure damage the overall principal? And after this trade, can I still stay at the table and continue trading? The most dangerous part of the primary market is here. It doesn’t give you a chance to correct gradually. When you realize something’s wrong, it’s already too late to retreat.

Second, try to avoid new listings, especially with small funds. This is a common trap many people fall into because new listings give the illusion of large space and high multiples. But in reality, it’s quite the opposite. When facing new listings, you’re in the most extreme moment of gambling. For small funds, new listings are not opportunities but the highest failure costs. If you make a wrong judgment, you get Rugged or go to zero immediately, with no room for correction. What you see are others making dozens of times profit on new listings, but what you don’t see are the many new listings where there’s no chance to even set a stop-loss. These cases are themselves surviving samples after filtering.

New listings are not off-limits, but they are only suitable for two types of people: one with extremely strong information sources, and the other with enough capital to withstand continuous zeroing out. If you don’t meet either, most of the time new listings are just accelerating the depletion of your principal.