📉 ETHEREUM AT A CROSSROADS: CAN WHALE ACCUMULATION TRIGGER A 15% FEBRUARY REBOUND?

Ethereum (ETH) is entering February 2026 at a critical technical and fundamental juncture. After a disappointing January that saw a 7% decline defying its historical median gain of +32% the second-largest cryptocurrency is now searching for a definitive floor. While analysts at B2BINPAY warn against over-reliance on historical patterns, on-chain metrics like the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) and a nascent “falling wedge” formation suggest that selling pressure is finally beginning to exhaust. With whales adding roughly 4 million ETH to their balances this month and long-term holders maintaining a positive net position, the market is poised for a potential relief rally toward the $3,340 resistance zone, provided institutional ETF flows stabilize.

Historical Patterns vs. The 2026 Reality

Ethereum’s start to the year has been an anomaly compared to its long-term seasonal performance.

• The January Deficit: Historically, January is one of Ethereum’s strongest months, with a median return of +32%. However, ETH is closing January 2026 down 7%, a trend that more closely mirrors the bearish start of 2025.
• The February Outlook: Since 2016, February has delivered a median gain of roughly +15%. While this offers a glimmer of hope for a recovery, experts warn that without a clear fundamental impulse, the market remains vulnerable to the “leverage-driven” price discovery that dominated the previous year’s 37% February collapse.

Technicals: The Falling Wedge and RSI Divergence

Despite the weak price action, underlying momentum indicators are flashing early reversal signals.

• The Bullish Wedge: On the two-day timeframe, ETH is moving inside a volatile falling wedge. A confirmed breakout from this structure could theoretically target a move as high as 60%, though immediate resistance levels remain the primary focus.
• Momentum Reset: Between mid-December and late January, Ethereum printed lower lows on price while the RSI held steady near 37. This “bullish divergence” suggests that the intensity of the sell-off is weakening, creating room for a short-term rebound if the $2,690 support level holds.

On-Chain Health: Whale Conviction and ETF Caution

The divide between different investor cohorts is defining Ethereum’s current valuation.

• Whale Accumulation: Large holders have been active buyers during the January dip, increasing their total supply from 101.18 million to 105.16 million ETH. This aggressive accumulation by whales stands in stark contrast to the mass distribution seen at this time last year.
• Institutional Fragmenting: Institutional sentiment remains “two-sided.” While Fidelity’s FETH has seen late-month inflows, broader spot-ETH ETFs experienced withdrawals exceeding 70,000 ETH in late January. This fragmented institutional behavior suggests that the market is still waiting for a structural “all-clear” signal.

Essential Financial Disclaimer

This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Ethereum (ETH) price predictions for February 2026 are based on historical returns, technical patterns, and on-chain data as of January 30, 2026. Historical performance is not a guarantee of future results, and the market remains subject to extreme volatility. Technical structures like the “falling wedge” are probabilistic and may lead to a breakdown rather than a breakout. On-chain metrics such as NUPL indicate that a full market “capitulation” has not yet occurred. Always conduct your own exhaustive research (DYOR) and consult with a licensed financial professional before making significant investment decisions.

Will Ethereum’s whale accumulation be enough to spark a 15% February rally, or are we heading for a $2,120 retest?