‍#Bitcoin Bull Market Corrections Deepen While On Chain Structure Remains Within Historical Range

Current on chain drawdown data shows $BTC has declined roughly 36% from its recent cycle high, marking one of the sharpest pullbacks of this bull phase. In isolation this magnitude appears severe, but historical cycle comparison suggests the correction remains structurally consistent with prior bull market behavior rather than signaling a confirmed macro top.
Previous expansion cycles regularly recorded interim drawdowns between 30% and 50%. Both the 2011 to 2015 and 2015 to 2017 bull markets experienced repeated deep retracements before continuation higher. Even during the 2018 to 2021 cycle, multiple corrections exceeded 35% while the broader uptrend remained intact. Relative to these periods, the current decline sits within the lower to mid historical range.
Market maturity continues to compress volatility over time. Early cycles saw deleveraging events exceeding 60% due to thin liquidity and limited institutional participation. Today, deeper derivatives markets, ETF flows, and stronger spot liquidity help absorb sell pressure more efficiently, reducing systemic downside risk despite elevated leverage.
Short term drawdown metrics confirm near term stress. The weekly SMA smoothed drawdown has now broken below the negative 30% zone, an area historically associated with late stage corrections and localized capitulation. These phases are typically driven by forced liquidations and speculative positioning resets.
Meanwhile, the 30 day drawdown band has widened significantly as price trades well below short term averages. Similar deviations in prior cycles often preceded local bottom formation once seller exhaustion emerged.
Liquidity conditions and capital inflows remain decisive. As long as drawdowns stay within cyclical norms and long term holder distribution remains limited, the broader bull market structure remains statistically intact despite heightened volatility.
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