#当前行情抄底还是观望？ Recently, Bitcoin prices have been volatile, breaking through multiple key support levels, and market sentiment remains bearish. Based on the current market conditions and analysis, it is recommended to adopt a wait-and-see approach, exercise caution when bottom-fishing, for the following reasons:

1. Technical Resistance is Strong
Bitcoin remains in a downtrend on the daily chart, with MACD showing a death cross and RSI slightly below 50, indicating that bearish momentum dominates. Although there have been some rebounds recently, the rebound strength is weak, and the price has repeatedly broken below key support levels (such as $75,000 and $73,000), reflecting a lack of market confidence. If the price further breaks below the $70,000 support, it could trigger a larger-scale sell-off.
2. Macroeconomic Factors Persist
Expectations of Federal Reserve monetary policy, geopolitical tensions (such as the conflict between Israel and Iran), and other factors continue to suppress market sentiment. The strengthening dollar puts pressure on Bitcoin priced in USD, and Bitcoin has not shown significant safe-haven properties recently, declining in tandem with traditional risk assets, which indicates divergence in market perception of its asset role.
3. Capital Flows and Market Sentiment
On-chain data shows that although the number of new addresses has surged recently, the overall market remains in a stock game stage, lacking new capital inflows. Institutional investors are reducing positions due to profit-taking and regulatory uncertainties, and the market currently lacks strong upward-driving factors in the short term.
4. Poor Risk-Reward Ratio
Although there are support levels below the current price (such as $70,000 and $68,000), the target rebounds (such as $80,000 and $82,000) are still far from the current price, and after a rebound, the price may continue to decline. Blindly bottom-fishing could face significant losses.
Trading Suggestions:
- Mainly wait-and-see: Wait for clear bottom signals in the market (such as multiple consecutive days above $70,000, or obvious volume increases and technical indicator reversals).