Polymarket 1-Minute Price Movement Prediction Officially Scheduled, POLY Airdrop Countdown?

Just two days ago, Polymarket core contributor Mustafa confirmed: “1-minute cryptocurrency price movement” prediction markets have been added to the next phase roadmap and will be deeply integrated with the launch and airdrop plans of POLY tokens. This is not merely a simple product upgrade—reducing the cycle from 5 minutes to 60 seconds—it also signals that the prediction track is evolving from “event gambling” to a continuous pricing protocol based on sentiment.

As Ice Intercontinental Exchange packages Polymarket data into institutional signal tools, and Kaito AI’s “attention market” prepares to launch, POLY tokens are likely to no longer be just governance tokens but will unlock high-frequency predictions, airdrops, and even market-making participation.

Not Just Faster: How 1-Minute Predictions Will Rewrite Market Rules

On February 12, Polymarket officially launched the “5-minute BTC rise/fall” prediction event, settling every 300 seconds, and attracted tens of millions of dollars in liquidity on its first day. The official confirmed that the “1-minute” version is in the pipeline—this will be the most granular standardized contract since the inception of prediction markets.

The significance goes beyond speed. Traditional prediction markets (including Polymarket’s previous election and macro event markets) are essentially binary options: 1 dollar if the event occurs, 0 if not. But when the prediction window shrinks to 60 seconds, price changes are no longer about “events” but become a continuous state flow. Every second’s transaction price reflects the market’s immediate sentiment about “the next second.”

This means Polymarket is evolving from a “result casino” into a “volatility dashboard.” For traders, you no longer need to wait for election results or CPI releases—each 1-minute candlestick becomes a new market to bet on.

The emergence of high-frequency prediction markets will attract many quant teams and AI agents. Humans cannot gather information, make decisions, and trade within 60 seconds, but algorithms can. When Polymarket’s order flow interacts with spot and perpetual markets for arbitrage, prediction markets will upgrade from “alternative data” to “core price signals.”

POLY Token: From Airdrop Expectations to “Prediction Fuel”

Alongside the “1-minute rise/fall” prediction, the biggest highlight is POLY tokens. Official information indicates that POLY airdrops are a core part of the next phase. Although the specific TGE timing and snapshot rules have not been announced, based on Polymarket’s past operations and recent product upgrades, we can infer three core scenarios for POLY:

1. Interaction Credentials and Airdrop Weight

Polymarket has previously laid the groundwork: migrating to native USDC, launching 5-minute markets, introducing institutional data tools. Each step is paving the way for compliance, scalability, and tokenization. Historical experience shows prediction markets are naturally suited for airdrop interactions—every bet and share trade is an on-chain action. For Polymarket, which has not yet issued tokens, “1-minute predictions” represent the final and most critical interaction window before the airdrop.

2. Gas Fees and Staked Assets in Prediction Markets

POLY is very likely to become the prediction fuel within the Polymarket ecosystem. In the future, users participating in 1-minute rise/fall markets may need to pay small fees with POLY or stake POLY to increase their betting limits and reduce transaction fees. This is similar to sequencer mechanisms on some Layer 2 solutions—transaction activity feeds back into token value.

3. Market Making and Settlement Assets

With the launch of attention markets and institutional data tools, Polymarket needs a unified value anchor to connect different modules. POLY could serve as an incentive asset for liquidity providers or even as a settlement unit for certain prediction markets.

From BTC to All Assets: Short-term Prediction Asset Expansion Path

Currently, the 5-minute and upcoming 1-minute prediction markets only support BTC. But official info makes it clear: follow-up support for mainstream altcoins is just a matter of time.

Why start with BTC?

Bitcoin boasts the deepest liquidity, most transparent on-chain data, and 24/7 global pricing. It’s the easiest path for prediction markets to move from “political events” to “native crypto assets.”

Next steps: ETH, SOL, and Meme Coins?

Once the 1-minute BTC prediction market matures, Polymarket will quickly replicate it for ETH, SOL, and other major assets. Highly volatile meme coins might even become more popular betting targets—1-minute 5% price swings are not uncommon in meme coin trading.

Gate users’ strategy: if you hold or trade related spot assets, the 1-minute prediction market can serve as a liquidity-backed hedge tool. For example, if you expect a negative news event to unfold in a few minutes, instead of panic-selling your spot holdings, you could buy “down” shares on Polymarket—small costs to lock in tail risk without affecting your spot position.

Scene Explosion: Institutions, AI, and Attention Markets

The “1-minute rise/fall” is not an isolated upgrade; it’s part of Polymarket’s 2026 scene matrix.

Institutional Entry: ICE Exclusive Data Tools

On February 10, ICE announced the launch of Polymarket Signals and Sentiment tools, providing standardized interfaces for institutional clients to access prediction market data. This means hedge funds, market makers, macro strategists will soon feed Polymarket’s 1-minute probability streams directly into trading algorithms. When Wall Street uses your betting data to train models, you’re not just a gambler—you’re an information contributor.

AI Predictions: Attention Market Countdown

In early March, Polymarket × Kaito AI’s “attention market” will officially launch. Users can bet on social metrics like “Will Anthropic’s attention surpass OpenAI next month?” Essentially, this extends the 1-minute philosophy into non-price domains—any quantifiable, high-frequency changing data can become a prediction market.

Linkage logic: these scenarios may seem independent but all require a unified value layer to connect governance, payments, and incentives. POLY tokens are the candidate for this layer. Participating in 1-minute rise/fall predictions is not only about betting on the next K-line of BTC but also about accumulating interaction credentials for future POLY airdrops.

Summary

The 1-minute rise/fall prediction fundamentally transforms human intuition about prices into machine-executable 0.01-second pricing signals. When Polymarket makes this leap, it will no longer be just “the FiveThirtyEight of crypto” but the infrastructure of volatility itself.

And POLY tokens are the first universal ticket to this infrastructure. The airdrop window is narrowing, and the interaction threshold remains low—this is still a golden window for sharp traders on Gate to understand the rules and accumulate chips.