#当前行情抄底还是观望？ From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is currently in a clear downtrend overall, with short-term momentum leaning weak. The battle between bulls and bears is intense, and key levels are as follows:

1. Resistance Level Analysis
The first short-term resistance is in the $69,000-$71,000 range, which has been a high point during multiple rebounds and is also a dense trading zone for short-term chips. If a volume breakout occurs above this range, short-term downward pressure will ease, potentially leading to a recovery rally;
The second resistance is at the $75,000 mark, which is the mid-term dividing line between strength and weakness in this correction. Only if the price stabilizes above this level can the current downtrend be reversed.
2. Support Level Analysis
The first short-term support is at the $65,000 level, which has been tested multiple times recently. If this level is broken, it will once again test the stage low of $59,900 set on February 6. A strong support zone is between $55,000 and $60,000, which is the start zone for Bitcoin’s 2024 halving rally and also the core cost basis for long-term holders. If this zone is breached, the market will enter a deeper correction.
3. Technical Indicator Analysis
Looking at the moving average system, Bitcoin is currently trading below the 5-day, 10-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages, which are all aligned in a bearish configuration, showing a clear downward trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is below 30, in oversold territory, indicating a short-term technical rebound may be needed, but the strength of the rebound still depends on volume confirmation. The MACD on the daily chart shows the green bars continuing to expand, indicating ample bearish momentum, with no clear signs of stabilization yet.
Market Outlook and Key Levels
Based on the current news, capital flow, and technical analysis, Bitcoin is likely to remain in a volatile and pressured state in the short term, with downside risks not fully exhausted. The medium and long-term trends will depend on regulatory policies, macroeconomic environment, and institutional capital movements, which can be divided into three timeframes:
1. Short-term (1-2 weeks): Mainly consolidating with pressure, watch for a second bottom risk. In the near term, Bitcoin is likely to fluctuate within the $60,000-$70,000 range, with overall weakness and limited rebound strength. Market sentiment is extremely bearish, trading volume continues to shrink, and combined with potential whale sell-offs, without strong positive news catalysts, a trend reversal is unlikely. There is a risk of testing the $60,000 level again or even a second bottom. Investors should focus on the $65,000 support level; if it fails, further downside is likely.
2. Medium-term (1-3 months): Increasing battle between bulls and bears, focus on two key variables. The medium-term trend will depend on:
- The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance. If the Fed signals a clear rate cut and the dollar index weakens, risk assets will get relief, and Bitcoin may see a recovery rally.
- The implementation of global regulatory policies. If the US SEC eases crypto regulations and spot ETF funds flow back into the market, it will bring incremental capital. Conversely, continued tightening will keep the market under pressure. Several institutions predict Bitcoin will likely fluctuate between $45,000 and $75,000, seeking a new direction.
3. Long-term (over 6 months): Structural opportunities remain, but uncertainty is very high. Over the long term, Bitcoin’s scarcity continues to be its core value support. As listed companies and institutional investors keep deploying, its mainstream asset attributes are expected to strengthen further. However, it’s important to note that Bitcoin’s current trajectory is deeply tied to macroeconomic conditions and regulatory policies. Its “decentralized” narrative has gradually weakened, becoming more similar to leveraged tech stocks, heavily influenced by global liquidity conditions. Institutions like Standard Chartered Bank forecast that after this deep correction, if macro conditions improve, Bitcoin could rebound in the second half of 2026, with a target price still around $100,000. However, some institutions warn that if regulation continues to tighten, Bitcoin could drop to the $40,000 range.