The next 24 hours will be the worst period of 2026

Blotienso · 2026-02-20T11:38:54+00:00

The essay discusses the potential impact of the Supreme Court ruling against Trump's tariffs, which Polymarket estimates at a 74% chance. A ruling could require the U.S. to refund over $600 billion, leading to economic chaos, market turmoil, and drastic reactions across financial sectors.

Blotienso

2026-02-20 11:38:54

Abstract generation in progress

Polymarket is pricing in a 74% chance that the Supreme Court will rule today that Trump’s tariffs are illegal.

U.S.-China tariffs → overturned
U.S.-EU tariffs → overturned
U.S.-Canada tariffs → overturned
And here’s what no one is telling you:
Tariffs have brought in over $600 billion to the economy.
If tariffs are deemed illegal, the U.S. will have to immediately refund that entire amount.
And that’s when the market immediately asks a simple question:
How much money will be refunded, and how quickly?
That’s not “clarity.”
That’s ABSOLUTE CHAOS.
Disputes over refunds are happening everywhere.
A massive revenue gap overnight.
Urgently issued replacement tariffs rushed into place.
Immediate retaliation risks from trading partners.
And the market isn’t pricing each factor individually.
They’re pricing EVERYTHING AT ONCE.
This is when liquidity is fully exploited.
Bond yields SKYROCKET / PLUMMET
Stocks DROP IN VALUE
Cryptocurrencies PLUMMET
So no, this is NOT a bullish signal.
Not relief.
Not a green light moment.
This is a volatile bomb, exploding at the worst possible time.

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