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🛢Today is a big day for oil markets; all eyes are on the US-Iran nuclear talks.
🔹A constructive solution could lead to a gradual reduction in the market's risk premium to as low as $10 per barrel.
🔹If the talks fail, the upside risk remains, but the market may refrain from a full reaction until the extent of potential US actions against Iran becomes clearer.
🔹Short-term, targeted attacks by Iran that do not target energy infrastructure (similar to those seen last year) could lead to a short-term rise in oil prices.
🔹Longer-term actions by the US and more aggressive Iranian retaliation will increase supply risks for the oil market. This would make further price increases more sustainable.
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