Water stress redefines harvest expectations for coarse grains 2025/26

The agricultural reality of the 2025/26 cycle differs significantly from what was announced. While some analysts projected a record “super harvest” for grains and a historic influx of foreign currency, field data tell a more complex story. The deficiencies in rainfall during January and February are shaping a landscape marked by regional heterogeneity, where plots with excellent prospects coexist alongside others severely affected by water stress.

Extreme heterogeneity: how rains fragment the core zone

Traveling through the core zone in recent weeks reveals a paradoxical reality. In some areas, crops look healthy: they benefited from timely showers or were planted under carefully designed production systems (more fallow, lower planting density) to anticipate water deficits. These plots are going through grain filling under relatively favorable conditions, with most first-crop corn between mid and three-quarters of milk line.

However, just a short distance away, the situation changes dramatically. The lack of significant rains has left its mark: large areas show symptoms of severe drought, projecting minimal yields that will not cover production costs. This disparity is largely due to the uneven distribution of rainfall. In towns like Pergamino, rainfall was almost nonexistent during critical periods, even causing leaf rolling in corn. Conversely, in southern Santa Fe, some recent localized showers have allowed producers to maintain more realistic production expectations.

Late maize: critical dependence on January rains

Late maize was a special case during this campaign. Its initial development proceeded with a “half-empty tank,” relying almost entirely on the rains that were supposed to arrive in January. Those planted in early December would complete flowering around 60 days after emergence, just during January, the most critical stage of the cycle: pollination and the start of grain filling.

The uneven distribution of January rains has made it impossible to accurately project yields. Producers face uncertainty: those crops that did not receive significant rainfall during this critical period have little chance of achieving production volumes sufficient to cover operational costs. The time window was crucial, and the uneven spatial distribution of rains deepened regional and farm-level disparities.

Soybeans and unevenness: the impact of irregular rainfall

Soybean crops reflect the same pattern of heterogeneity observed in maize. Both early and second sowings show marked differences in development, directly related to two factors: rainfall availability and the quality of agronomic management implemented by each farm.

This unevenness, in a way, mirrors climatic irregularities. While some producers managed to adapt their management decisions to the anticipated precipitation conditions, others face compromised crops. Soybeans, being more drought-tolerant than maize, still show a significant gap between optimistic and realistic scenarios depending on the rainfall received.

Final outlook: from optimism to prudence

As March progresses and grain harvest approaches, prudence replaces initial optimism. The irregular summer rains have left their mark: this will be a generally good harvest, but far from the record predicted. The true magnitude of production will depend on whether residual rainfall in recent days can still mitigate some of the damage. What is certain is that current prices will not compensate in many areas for the production shortfall caused by water stress, significantly altering producers’ economic calculations.