A Look At Centerra Gold (TSX:CG) Valuation After Reserve Growth And 2025 Results

Simply Wall St

Tue, February 24, 2026 at 2:09 PM GMT+9 3 min read

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Centerra Gold (TSX:CG) is back in focus after its 2025 annual results combined strong earnings, larger reported gold and copper reserves, fresh 2026 production guidance, a maintained dividend, and continued analyst confidence.

See our latest analysis for Centerra Gold.

At a share price of CA$25.75, Centerra Gold has seen strong momentum build over the past year, with a 90 day share price return of 47.82% and a 1 year total shareholder return of 203.04%, as investors reacted to higher reserves, earnings, updated guidance, and past buyback activity.

If these results have you looking more broadly at precious metals, it could be a good time to scan the gold space using our 26 elite gold producer stocks as a starting list of ideas.

With the share price already up sharply and analysts still seeing upside to their price targets, the key question now is whether Centerra’s improved reserves, earnings, and buybacks leave more room for upside or whether the market is already pricing in future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 20% Overvalued

At CA$25.75, the most followed narrative puts Centerra Gold’s fair value at roughly one fifth below that price, setting up a clear valuation tension.

The analyst price target for Centerra Gold has ticked higher by about C$0.25, with analysts pointing to updated fair value estimates, modest tweaks to discount and growth assumptions, as well as a lower projected future P/E multiple as key supports for the change.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what is sitting behind that higher fair value, yet lower future earnings multiple? The narrative leans heavily on revenue momentum, margin lift and disciplined discounting. Curious which specific profit and valuation assumptions have to line up for the numbers to work? The full story connects those moving parts in detail.

Result: Fair Value of CA$21.47 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

However, you still need to weigh risks such as cost inflation at Oksüt and potential project delays or overruns at Thompson Creek, Goldfield, or Kemess that could pressure cash flow.

Find out about the key risks to this Centerra Gold narrative.

Another angle on valuation

That CA$21.47 fair value comes from one set of assumptions, but the P/E picture points a different way. Centerra trades on 6.4x earnings compared with 12.2x as a fair ratio, 22.7x for the Canadian metals and mining group, and 32.7x for peers. Is that a value gap or a warning signal?

Story Continues  

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

TSX:CG P/E Ratio as at Feb 2026

Next Steps

Feeling the mixed sentiment in this story? With both risks and rewards on the table, take a moment to review the data yourself and weigh up 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If you are weighing up your next move, do not stop at one stock. Use a broader view of the market to spot opportunities that fit your style.

Target steadier growth potential by scanning companies in our 7 high quality undervalued stocks, which combine quality fundamentals with prices that may sit below fair value estimates.

Lock in potential income ideas by reviewing the 6 dividend fortresses, which focuses on companies offering higher yields alongside resilient payout records.

Spot resilient all rounders by checking the solid balance sheet and fundamentals stocks screener (9 results), highlighting businesses with stronger financial foundations that can support long term plans.

_ This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned._

Companies discussed in this article include CG.TO.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly._ Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com_

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