The steel billet prices are expected to show a rebound trend of fluctuating upward in March.

In March, the domestic billet market will experience a balanced recovery in supply and demand. In the first ten days of March, due to production restrictions during important meetings in North China, pig iron output will temporarily decline. Coupled with poor profitability of steel mills limiting production resumption, the growth rate of supply will slow down. On the demand side, as temperatures rise and the effects of the Spring Festival holiday fully dissipate, downstream re-rolling mills will enter a concentrated phase of resumption and production. The accelerated restart of rolling lines will significantly boost billet consumption demand, along with the resumption of infrastructure projects and relaxed real estate policies driving a recovery in terminal steel demand.

On the cost side, although raw material prices softened in February, leading to increased losses for steel mills, March will see a rebound in raw material prices such as iron ore and coke driven by the recovery in downstream demand and inventory replenishment needs. The cost support will gradually strengthen.

Overall, March is expected to see a favorable scenario of supply and demand resonance in the domestic billet market. The combined effects of demand recovery, increased cost support, accelerated inventory destocking, and policy benefits will create a synergistic impact. It is anticipated that billet prices will fluctuate upward in a restorative trend, gradually returning to a reasonable value range. Moving forward, close attention should be paid to the progress of downstream resumption and production, as well as the speed of inventory destocking. (Mysteel)