If you choose the ultra-expectation trading strategy, confirming the breakout is the only buying point.

StrawberryIce · 2026-03-09T18:10:24+00:00

This article analyzes the current market sentiment cycle and trading strategies, emphasizing the importance of flexibility and risk-control during chaotic periods. It mainly focuses on individual stocks such as Shunnao Co., Ltd., and highlights the significance of market sentiment changes for timing operations. It also summarizes principles for buying and selling stocks and lessons learned during recession periods, recommending attention to market sentiment rotation and avoiding blindly chasing highs.

StrawberryIce

2026-03-09 18:10:24

Abstract generation in progress

Market Sentiment Cycle [Taogu Ba]
(1) Cycle: Chaos phase, Day 19.
(2) Sentiment: Good profit-taking effect. (Very good, good, somewhat good, somewhat poor, poor, very poor)
Timing
(1) Market divergence days, avoid action.
(2) Shun Na Shares’ bidding did not meet expectations; opening aligned with expectations, indicating a left-side trade, further confirmation of weak-to-strong tomorrow is needed.
Continuous Board Ladder
605268 Wangli Security 9:25 4 Robots
000533 Shunna Shares 9:30 4 Smart Grid
000815 Meiliyun 13:32 3 Openclaw
601789 Ningbo Construction 9:25 2 Openclaw
600821 Jinkai New Energy 9:25 2 Openclaw
002015 Xiexin Energy Tech 9:48 2 Smart Grid
000601 Shaoneng Shares 13:38 2 Smart Grid
002261 Tuowei Information 14:10 2 Openclaw
600227 Chitianhua 14:20 2 Chemical Industry
000534 Wanze Shares 14:37 2 Gas Turbines
601567 Samsung Medical 14:44 2 Smart Grid
Selected Stocks
4.1 Leading Stocks
Yuneng Holdings, energy cooperation.
4.2 First Market
None.
4.3 First Theme
Shunna Shares, Smart Grid.
4.4 Key Sectors and Core Targets
Buying Stocks
Shunna Shares.
Holding Positions
Shunna Shares.
Selling Stocks
Hankang Shares.
Tomorrow’s Plan
8.1 Core Guidelines
(1) Keep the main line vague, do not chase leaders; respect the cycle, adapt flexibly.
(2) Set the direction first, then choose entry points; control risk first, then seek profit.
(3) Lurk for rotation, strictly control mistakes; avoid chasing hype, prevent huge losses.
8.2 Today’s Stock Pool (Shunna Shares)
8.3 Tomorrow’s Stock Pool (Shunna Shares, Meiliyun, Jinkai New Energy)
8.4 Position Management
Shunna Shares: Hold if weak turns strong; sell if strong turns weak or weak turns weak.
Mode Practice
9.1 Static Stock Selection
Pre-market stock selection must follow basic principles: “Prioritize recognizability,” “Core first,” “Highness over strength,” “Favor new over old,” “Continuous boards over re-breakouts,” etc.
9.2 Timing Operations
Focus on sentiment during major upward phases, increase position boldly; on major divergence days, typically funds will flow back, so watch for sentiment warming days to control positions and act. During decline phases, avoid action; on strong divergence days or divergence days, strictly no action.
9.3 In-Session Stock Picking
In-session selection is a necessary supplement and correction to static stock picking. Follow principles like “Prioritize recognizability,” “Core first,” “Price exceeding expectations,” “Opening exceeding expectations,” “First to break out,” “Good stocks are being snapped up,” “Follow A-shares to do A-shares,” etc., and adhere to “Patience and precision” mindset.
(1) Prioritize recognizability.
(2) Prioritize core stocks.
(3) Choose new over old.
(4) Choose high over low.
(5) Choose strong over weak.
(6) Choose high over strong.
(7) Choose exceeding expectations over meeting expectations.
9.4 Buying Stocks
Follow principles like “Prioritize recognizability,” “Core first,” “Price exceeding expectations,” “Opening exceeding expectations,” “Good stocks waiting for breakout.”
Stock buying is the implementation of trading plans; at low positions, focus on “stronger is better” buy points; at high positions, focus on “weak turning strong” buy points. Opening with a straight rally is a basic prerequisite.
9.5 Holding Stocks
Holding must meet “Prioritize recognizability,” “Core first,” “Price exceeding expectations,” “Opening exceeding expectations,” “Early strong and firm” principles. “Early strong and firm” means sealing the limit-up before 10:00, with smooth intraday trend and large volume orders; after 10:00, no breakouts and strong closing orders. The core logic is to gain high premium the next day; violating this means no holding logic.
9.6 Selling Stocks
Selling must follow “Selling below expectations,” “Risk of selling,” “Weak turning weak,” “Weak turning stronger” principles. Be prepared to sell if:
(1) Bidding gains are less than yesterday or below market expectations.
(2) Opening drops more than 3%.
(3) First wave of rally less than 3%.
(4) First wave hits limit-up but fails to close the limit or near-limit.
(5) Second wave fails to surpass the first high.
(6) Intraday pullback below moving average, unable to re-stand within 3 minutes.
(7) Breakout fails and drops more than 7 points, unable to recover within 3 minutes.
(8) Breakout drops more than 4 points, unable to recover within 3 minutes.
(9) Weak tail end.
(10) Chaos phase, stocks that fail to upgrade (excluding core stocks), prepare for night-time ranking.
(11) Chaos phase, core stocks that break the limit but fail to turn strong the next day, prepare for night-time ranking on the third day.
9.7 Error Correction
Selling prematurely is normal; the key challenge is overcoming psychological barriers, which requires deliberate training. Follow “Divergence to consensus” principle: if disciplined to cut losses when breakouts fall more than 7%, but later divergence occurs due to index, sentiment, or sector factors, decisively buy back following the trend. Many find this hard; the core issue is psychological.
9.8 Operation Reflection
(1) There are misunderstandings about exceeding expectations; stocks can exceed expectations in two ways: weak turning strong, or strong becoming stronger. To avoid being fooled, confirm with breakout.
(2) Never trade during bidding.
(3) Never chase one-word limit-ups.
(4) Never do mid-trades.
(5) Wait for breakout signals.
10 Painful Lessons
(1) During decline, clear out the so-called leaders immediately; suppression is highly probable, while gains are unlikely!!!
(2) During decline, one-word explosive moves are just catch-up rallies, artificially created false prosperity; when leaders fall, catch-up rallies are A-shares killing, with no exceptions.
(3) Decline usually lasts 3 days, up to 5 days.
(4) Maintain at least 3 days of cash during decline!!!
(5) Clearly distinguish between decline and strong divergence phases. During decline, leaders are suppressed without escape opportunities, and the next day often hits limit-down again; the strongest catch-up may break and fall back, with some limit-up but likely to fall next day. During strong divergence, leaders fully rotate and sometimes hit limit-down at the close, but the next day will turn strong and rebound (with differences in strength); many thematic stocks catch up, showing significant differentiation, with funds favoring the weak to stay strong, leaving some survivors; the next day, survivors may turn strong and continue upward, leading the main funds to recover.
(6) After decline, it’s chaos phase, characterized by fan rotation; semiconductor (chips), smart grid, robotics, chemicals, precious metals, consumption, commercial aerospace, AI applications, etc., rotate over 2 themes daily.
(7) Chaos phase is a structural market, showing “good two days, bad one, advance two, retreat one” pattern, normal rotation. Hot sectors lack persistence, but core themes repeatedly warm up, generally stopping at 4 to 5 rounds.
(8) Chaos is like whack-a-mole; strong on the day, follow on the day, cash out the next day. Correct timing leads to a bull market; incorrect timing leads to a bear market.
(9) Transition from chaos to strength has high success rate; from chaos to weakness, low success rate.
(10) Transition from decline to chaos requires a “freezing point” switch; similarly, from chaos to main upward phase also needs a “freezing point” switch. During the freeze, you can do consecutive limit-ups with high premiums the next day.
(11) Ultra-short operations focus on buying today and selling tomorrow, favoring weak-to-strong and strong-to-strong; avoid left-side low buying.
(12) During chaos, reduce participation in stocks with 3 or more limit-ups (excluding core sectors), as they generally risk further decline.
(13) During chaos, stocks with 3 or more limit-ups (excluding core sectors), if failed in the day, prepare for night-time ranking; do not expect miracles.
(14) After-hours major negative news stocks, prepare for night-time ranking, do not expect miracles.

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.