3.9 Cycle Review Post: The Silver Lining in Misfortune, The Misfortune in Silver Lining, Technical Insights

[Taoguba]

Market Overview

Very strong, the strongest among Asia-Pacific, somewhat like combining Tuesday and Wednesday’s K-line into one day.
It means a headless bearish candle in the morning, then rebounded in the afternoon.

2.6 trillion yuan in volume, 20% increase, but this volume was mainly sold in the morning, with a clear pullback in the afternoon.

Will it continue to rebound tomorrow?

Hard to tell for now, as US stock futures are still falling.

Let’s look at institutional opinions.

The geopolitical situation has become even more complicated. No one dares to predict, the market just keeps rising day by day.

Without a strong volume-up day or a breakout candle that changes the outlook, I don’t dare to be bullish.

Because everyone knows MY (Market Year) isn’t over yet. Although we’ve started restricting MY-related videos here.

It’s an attempt to reduce interference, but it’s useless.

Profit Effect

Weak divergence

Mid-to-low stocks start to rotate actively

High stocks are not strong

Effective loss-making effect is limited, only 3 stocks hit the limit down

But there are many large-cap stocks, especially in oil and commodities sectors.

Sentiment Cycle

Chaotic structure, no persistent strength in the strong, weak ones keep turning strong again.

Quantitative-led market is very difficult.

There used to be Yuzu (a metaphor for groupings), now no more groupings or clustering.

Fortunately, the market didn’t turn black or ice-cold.

Unfortunate in good luck: still rotating without clustering.

Theme Cycle

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Large commodities today opened high and then declined sharply, the most affected area.

Futures are not as shameless in gains, still some opportunities.

Gains are too crazy; even if it reaches 150+, today’s high was 120, but I worry that at open it might surge or pull back, then we close, and it starts to fall.

Chasing futures with stocks is just too much money.

This largely reflects the expectation that “Tax Lord” (a nickname for a major regulator or authority) wants to unilaterally declare victory and retreat.

M (market) can’t sustain a prolonged war.

War is an extension of ZZ (a metaphor or code), serving ZZ.

Tomorrow’s direction will be a divergence expectation; pray that futures don’t continue to fall tonight, or the divergence will intensify.

Big Tech

Overseas computing power, NVIDIA, etc.

Today’s market resonance: morning decline, afternoon V-shape recovery.

Focus on Changfei Optical Fiber.

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Officially halted decline with a weak rebound, false bearish line.

To see a rebound, the strength is unpredictable; the worst is a decline followed by a rebound that doesn’t materialize.

Then a second decline, which could be large if a rebound occurs.

Overseas Computing Power & Smart Grid

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Four consecutive days of consistent movement.

Divergence at open, convergence at close, weakening overall.

Today’s candle is the smallest among four bullish days.

Volume increased but stagnated.

Half-day trading with 15 limit-ups.

This direction is linked with the computing electricity sector.

Overall intra-day rhythm shows divergence.

Mid-tier stocks like China Western Electric are trending well at new highs.

Positioning for a rebound: SuNaS (Sodium) shares, shrinking volume, hitting the limit.

Mid-level recognition: JinKai New Energy, one-word trend.

Earlier, LongTribe Tech and SanBian Tech crossed over, indicating a trend.

These are representative stocks showing consensus.

This wave’s capacity and trend gains are led by HanCable.

Early in the session, HanCable’s second hour started to diverge from the index and weaken.

Nanshan Digital surged then pulled back; Pino Tech hit the limit and fell back.

All indicating divergence in this sector.

Smart grid on Friday combined with computing electricity sector expectations, understandable as funds are merging power-related assets into smart grids, strengthening the logic.

Looking at the highest sentiment indicator, Yueneng Holdings, tomorrow’s smart grid sector still faces divergence expectations.

Whether the future can shift from divergence to consensus depends on whether the divergence-resistant stocks can again turn into a unified trend and enter the third stage of main rally.

Domestic Computing Power

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Computing power is now stronger than the market but weaker than the power grid sector.

No strengthening of the computing-electricity synergy; it follows the power grid.

Today’s strength came from crayfish concept stocks, with 14 limit-ups.

Recognition: Ningbo Construction, one-word, Tuowei Information, big-cap UCloud.

This direction is a full-day trend; tomorrow’s expectation is for continuation.

New info: institutions are starting to promote AI NAS.

More authentic logic comes from Green Union Tech and UCloud.

In other words, domestic computing power is also rotating; the divergence in Friday’s computing-electricity sector remains.

Today’s strength was entirely in crayfish stocks.

Post-holiday, the most sustained are not the top gainers but Huawei Ascend.

Because Ascend 950 and DeepSeek V4 had pre-release expectations.

Now, as news ferments, quantification surges, then it’s abandoned for newer themes.

Other Two Sessions (NPC & CPPCC) themes

Robotics, environmental protection, commercial aerospace.

Basically, weak rotation, and the points of rotation are the key to observing.

Style and Bias

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Likely to focus on trend-based main rally, with secondary support from consecutive limit-ups.

No significant disagreement here.

Quantitative Era

Objectively, it’s hard to beat quant strategies; only human subjective judgment can surpass them.

My subjective view is:

It’s not good to be too subjective here.

The market is also confused.

Confusion stems from the market’s structure and trend.

If the market is bullish, commodities don’t need to be watched.

If it continues downward, at least in the short term, it remains a bearish structure.

So, commodities still have fermentation potential, but rhythm must be managed.

Divergence and exhaustion can be low-entry points; chasing is not advisable.

Hua Sheng Tian Cheng

No movement, another day of being manipulated.

Hua Sheng Tian Cheng is also a crayfish concept stock, today providing a “wedding dress” for Tuowei.

Feed me peanuts (for my voice).

This is a microcosm of Big Tech

Pre-holiday limit-ups, expecting post-holiday trend.

During the holiday, MY (Market Year) started deploying massively, and in the second week, the MY war began.

Damn, Tianming (Heaven’s fate) is at its peak.

The end of a trend is oscillation: from 02.13 to 03.02, this is the end of this wave.

Then, oscillation begins.

The end of oscillation is a new trend.

Oscillation is just a weak equilibrium between bulls and bears; eventually, it will break, choosing a direction.

Either upward breakout or downward breakdown.

During oscillation, claims of “shakeout” or “distribution” are not objective.

Future confirmation of the trend is needed to define the oscillation.

If it breaks upward, it’s called shakeout.

If it breaks downward, it’s distribution.

In the process, we exclude emotional rhythm and initiative, relying purely on technical analysis.

Use either the highest volume peak or the lowest volume point—traditional technical analysis.

The lowest point of the highest volume candle is the last defense for the bull.

Technical analysis: the lowest volume point must not be effectively broken at close.

That’s the low on 02.27 at 27.

On 03.03, it hit the limit down but recovered by close.

On 03.04, opening at 27, it surged again.

This suggests recent oscillation is controlled by funds or veteran traders.

The 23510 principle is used to anchor strong trending stocks and phases.

Hua Sheng Tian Cheng is not in that phase now.

Today, it didn’t break out effectively and remains in the box.

How to observe the box structure? A mnemonic:

Repeated tests of the top will eventually break through.

Repeated tests of the bottom will eventually break.

The box oscillates with strength; between the middle and upper bands, it tends to attempt to break the upper band, with support at the middle. The probability of breaking out is higher.

Between the middle and lower bands, it tends to seek support at the lower band, with resistance at the middle. The probability of breaking down is higher.

Understanding this, Hua Sheng Tian Cheng has been weakly oscillating around 27, often finding support there.

Today’s early low was too much; if it hit the limit-up, it would be too long a leg.

Intra-day, many profit-taking positions; not hitting the limit-up is also fine.

Today’s move can be seen as a test of breakout, lacking market consensus.

Without good “Yuzu” (a metaphor for clear signals), it’s hard to identify, and quant strategies are thriving.

Tuowei Information at least has Zhang Mengzhu.

Tomorrow depends on whether it continues to break upward, confirming today’s test, or returns to the lower band of the box.

If it doesn’t break through again, I can’t stand it anymore.

HanLan Shares

Cleared out in the afternoon.

The index had a headless bullish candle; it moved too passively.

If it resists divergence and turns strong again, we’ll see then.

China Western Electric

Nanshan Digital

Damn, today’s power grid sector continued, with some divergence during the session.

No divergence yet.

Feels like funds are starting to target new themes, like crayfish, AI applications + crayfish computing power.

The rhythm of the power grid sector: either focus on the left side for divergence opportunities, or see active leadership on the right side for a weak-to-strong shift.

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No video tonight due to other commitments.

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Deeply studying? Check the blogger’s homepage for a wealth of public articles and insights.

A collection of valuable articles on market analysis and sentiment cycles.

Sentiment cycle historical review—learning from history to understand rises and falls.

Sentiment cycle video explanation—highly recommended, maybe you should watch it too?

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Disclaimer: I only record my own operations and do not force anyone to follow. Please trade cautiously. This blog is just a record of my own actions.

Investments involve risks. Trade carefully. Plans can’t keep up with market changes. Follow the market movements. The content reflects personal thoughts and records, not investment advice. Make your own decisions; profits and losses are your own responsibility!