Iran's new leader, Mojtaba Khamenei: Where will a hardliner lead the war?

Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author | jk

On March 8th, Iran’s Expert Council officially announced that 56-year-old Mojtaba Khamenei has been elected as the third Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran. This appointment occurred less than two weeks after the death of his father, former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, in a joint US-Israel airstrike on February 28th. It is also the first time in Iranian history that the highest authority has been passed down within a family.

Crisis Moment, Hasty Succession

On February 28, 2026, former Supreme Leader Khamenei’s residence in Tehran was targeted in a joint Israeli and US airstrike, resulting in the death of about 40 senior Iranian officials. Following confirmation of Khamenei’s assassination, Iran established a temporary leadership committee under Article 111 of the constitution, jointly led by President Pahlavi, Judiciary Chief Mohseni-Ejei, and a representative of the Guardian Council, Ali Larijani.

On March 3, the Expert Council’s office in Qom was reportedly bombed, raising concerns that the election process might be disrupted. However, the 88-member clerical expert council ultimately voted on March 8th, with a decisive majority, to elect Mojtaba Khamenei as the new Supreme Leader, and issued a statement calling on all Iranians, “especially the elite scholars and students in seminaries and universities,” to swear allegiance to the new leader and maintain national unity.

Mojtaba Khamenei, Source: BBC

Who Is Mojtaba Khamenei?

Born in 1969 in Mashhad, Iran’s holy city, Mojtaba Khamenei is the second son of Ali Khamenei. His childhood coincided with his father’s rise as a revolutionary figure opposing the Pahlavi dynasty, and the tumultuous years leading up to the 1979 Islamic Revolution profoundly shaped his political background. In religious education, Mojtaba studied under the late Grand Ayatollah Mohammad Taqi Moussavi Yazdi, a hardline theologian known for advocating a strict approach and publicly claiming that “killing Iranian youth promoting Western morals is justified by doctrine.”

At age 17, Mojtaba joined the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and fought in the Hajjib Battalion during the Iran-Iraq War. Analysts describe this battalion as “a highly ideologically driven unit,” commanded by one of the founders of Hezbollah. Many of his comrades later became senior figures in Iran’s security and intelligence agencies. This experience laid an important network foundation for his subsequent rise to power.

After his father became Supreme Leader in 1989, Mojtaba became one of his most important aides. Over the years, he remained active within the core circle of the Supreme Leader’s office, with his influence significantly increasing after the 2009 Green Movement protests. US diplomatic cables (released via WikiLeaks) referred to him as “the real power behind the robe.” In 2019, the US Treasury sanctioned him for allegedly aiding his father’s efforts to “destabilize the region and suppress domestic dissent,” and disclosed that Khamenei had delegated some leadership responsibilities to him.

Contrasting his political influence, Mojtaba has almost never appeared publicly: he has never given a public speech, hosted Friday prayers, or made political statements, so many ordinary Iranians have never heard his voice. Reports suggest he has accumulated a vast network of economic interests across multiple countries, allegedly mobilizing billions of dollars through insiders and partners linked to the Iranian authorities.

Mojtaba is now married and has at least one son and one daughter. His wife is the daughter of former Iranian Parliament Speaker Haddad-Adel.

Hardline Continuity, International Reactions Divide

Mojtaba’s election is widely seen as a signal that Iran’s hardliners remain firmly in control despite extreme pressure. Analysts point out that, given his deep ties with the Revolutionary Guard and security apparatus, it is unlikely Iran will quickly reach a ceasefire agreement with the US and Israel. Lebanese American University public policy researcher Rami Khouri described the appointment as a “contemptuous gesture,” signaling to the US and Israel that their attempts to overthrow the Iranian regime will fail.

Domestically, Iranian President Pahlavi described the appointment as heralding a “new era of national dignity and strength”; the Revolutionary Guard issued a statement pledging loyalty to the new leader and readiness to obey his commands; Speaker Ghalibaf also called on Iranians to follow the new leader as a “religious and national duty.”

On the international stage, reactions are sharply divided. Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed “steadfast support” for Mojtaba’s appointment, while China explicitly opposed any actions targeting the new Supreme Leader. US President Donald Trump publicly declared Mojtaba’s appointment “unacceptable,” and warned in an interview with ABC that “if the new leader is not recognized by the US, he will not last long.” The Israeli Defense Forces also issued warnings, stating that any successor to Khamenei would be considered a target for attack.

Market Predictions: Can Mojtaba Secure His Position as Leader?

Following Mojtaba Khamenei’s official appointment, decentralized prediction markets platform Polymarket quickly saw multiple markets related to Iran’s situation, with traders betting on the political fate of the new leader.

“Will the Iranian leadership change before the designated date?” This market opened on the evening of March 8th, with total trading volume exceeding $530,000. Data shows significant variation in traders’ assessments of the short-term likelihood that Mojtaba will be “removed from power”: as of March 13th, the probability is only 11%; by March 31st, it rises to 33%; and by April 30th, it reaches 45%. If the timeline extends to the end of the year (December 31), the “Yes” probability jumps to 69%. This indicates that over two-thirds of market participants believe Mojtaba will not be in actual power by the end of 2026.

Will the Iranian leadership change before the designated date? Source: Polymarket

“Who will lead Iran at the end of 2026?” Another market with a total trading volume over $1.42 million shows Mojtaba Khamenei currently leading with a 32% chance, but this figure reflects limited confidence in his continued rule. Exiled Iranian Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi ranks second at 17%, current President Pahlavi at 10%, and “no leader” (regime collapse or power vacuum) at 5%.

“Can Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?” This market’s total trading volume is nearly $490,000, with current odds at 18%, down more than 26 percentage points from earlier high points.