Gold prices will gradually stabilize and return to the long-term trend, with the long-term target potentially reaching $6,000.

The current precious metals market is in a rational correction phase. Although investors hope for a repeat of the previous explosive vertical rally, market laws dictate that such a trend is difficult to sustain. Currently, there are two core narratives circulating—"Dollar Collapse Theory" and "Global Currency System End Theory." Both view gold as the ultimate safe haven asset after the collapse of the fiat currency system. In my opinion, this perspective is seriously flawed.
From the perspective of currency strength indicators, the US dollar remains in a strong cycle. Cross-verification with the dollar index and major currencies such as the euro, yen, and pound shows no signs of systemic collapse. Even if the dollar weakens in the future, the extent of its adjustment will not be enough to shake the foundation of the global economy. History provides evidence: the devaluation of "weak currencies" like the Turkish lira and Icelandic króna did not equate to the demise of the monetary system; although the yen's purchasing power has significantly shrunk since the gold standard era, the currency system was reconstructed through the removal of gold backing, not a complete collapse. Therefore, gold will not surge in value simply because fiat currencies are about to collapse. However, when the purchasing power of money declines, the nominal prices of all physical assets, including gold, will rise.
My core view is simple: gold is a weapon of war.
Governments around the world stockpile gold as reserves to cope with extreme conflict scenarios. These reserves can be called "war currencies." As global tensions continue to escalate, countries are increasing their gold reserves, and large-scale gold purchases by sovereign nations will inevitably push gold prices steadily higher. The current level of global tension is sufficient to support this trend.
In light of recent market corrections, I predict that gold prices will gradually stabilize and return to the long-term trend. Based on current momentum, the long-term target could reach $6,000. This trend will not adversely affect silver in the long run. Essentially, silver is the "FOMO asset" (Fear of Missing Out driven asset) of gold. When gold reaches $6,000 and above, silver is highly likely to experience a rapid surge followed by a sharp decline—this is a typical market pattern for silver.
Such volatility may disappoint many silver investors, who often see silver as the star of the precious metals market rather than a high-beta substitute for gold. The slow rise of gold is far from their expectations when they bought in. However, for patient investors, the AI revolution may become a boon for the precious metals market—disruptive changes brought by AI could accelerate inflation, and its high-tech applications will consume large amounts of gold and silver, further supporting precious metal prices.
In summary, further increases in gold prices do not depend on the collapse of the dollar. Those monetary ideologists, the "Millennialists," waiting for the financial apocalypse, are likely to face prolonged disappointment. During this current market correction, the long-term logic for gold's rise is clear. While silver is more volatile, it still offers opportunities in certain phases. Moreover, the development of artificial intelligence may inject new support into the entire precious metals market.