Caixin Survey | Consumption growth may accelerate in January-February; industrial and export growth may slow slightly

WealthCoffee · 2026-03-10T03:12:56+00:00

Due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday, the growth rate of industrial production in January and February may slow down, with the average forecast for the year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value at 5.1%. Investment growth remains negative, but exports show strong resilience, freight performance is good, and automobile production may be somewhat weak due to the adjustment of subsidy policies.

WealthCoffee

2026-03-10 03:12:56

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[Caixin] Due to the long Spring Festival holiday leading to fewer working days, the growth rate of industrial production from January to February may slow down. The replacement of old products supports categories that boost consumption again, while investment growth remains negative and exports remain resilient.

A recent survey by Caixin Media of 13 domestic and international institutions shows that, on the production side, economists’ forecasted average year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value for January to February is 5.1%, slightly below the previous value by 0.1 percentage points. The median is 5.0%, with a survey range of 4.5% to 6.9%. The previous value was 5.2%, with three institutions predicting higher than the previous value.

Chief economist Zhang Yu of Huachuang Securities expects the year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value for January to February to be around 5.5%. On one hand, freight transportation is strong. As of March 1, the total truck traffic on highways increased by 5.6% year-on-year, compared to 5.1% in the same period in 2025. Combining export data, it is expected that exports will drive strong freight movement, indicating that early-year production is not weak. However, due to adjustments in subsidy policies, automobile production may be somewhat weak.

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