"Since the Spring Festival, the sales performance of most of our projects has doubled," homebuyers' mentality has begun to stabilize, and the Beijing housing market heat has returned.

“China State Construction Juyue Residence sold 28 units in the first week of March, totaling 200 million yuan.” “招商朝棠揽阅 sold 35 units weekly.” “Greentown Xiaoyue and Feng sold 75 million yuan in a single week.” … In recent days, many developers in Beijing have been sharing good news about their sales at the start of March. This kind of “buzz” has not appeared in the Beijing real estate market for a long time.

Many developers in Beijing share their sales achievements for March

Meanwhile, the secondary housing market is also warming up driven by favorable policies and seasonal demand, with market activity significantly increasing. According to Centaline data, in the first week of March (March 2–8), new commercial residential transactions in Beijing reached 53,400 square meters, a 15% increase month-on-month; 2,980 second-hand commercial residential units were sold, up 21% month-on-month. However, due to high baseline figures last year, transaction volumes for both new and second-hand homes still declined year-on-year.

A relevant person from China Merchants Shekou Beijing told the “Daily Economic News” reporter (hereinafter referred to as “the reporter”): “We do feel signs of a ‘small spring’ in the housing market. Since the Spring Festival, sales performance of most of our projects has doubled.”

“Future project positioning and quality are expected to further improve”

This year’s National People’s Congress and Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (Two Sessions) also drew attention to real estate, with “focusing on stabilizing the real estate market” becoming an important direction for 2026. In the government work report related to real estate, policies such as “implementing city-specific measures to control new supply, destock, optimize supply, exploring multiple channels to activate existing stock of commercial housing, and encouraging the purchase of stock housing mainly for affordable housing” are prominently featured.

From the policies already introduced, Beijing has been active in “controlling new supply, destocking, and optimizing supply.” On January 19, Beijing released the “2026 Construction Land Supply Plan” (hereinafter referred to as “the Supply Plan”), which lowered the supply scale of commercial residential land to 200–240 hectares, a reduction of 40–60 hectares compared to 2025.

On March 9, Cao Jingjing, General Manager of the Index Research Department at Centaline Research, analyzed for the reporter: “This reflects a clear approach of moderating the pace of new supply to match current market absorption levels, preventing further inventory buildup.”

At the same time, Beijing’s land supply structure continues to tilt toward core areas. The “Supply Plan” states that the urban and rural construction land supply in the central districts (including core areas) accounts for about 20% of the city’s total land supply, with no reduction in the release of quality land parcels. The plan also emphasizes “continuously optimizing the supply of commercial housing, prioritizing development around subway stations, well-equipped areas, and employment-dense regions. Promoting ‘good housing’ initiatives, improving housing quality, and strengthening surrounding infrastructure and public services.”

Cao Jingjing said that in the short term, Beijing’s new housing market will shift from “quantity expansion” to “quality competition.” With policy guidance and land supply plans working together, the future of project product positioning and quality is expected to further improve. The trend of housing prices is expected to show “overall stabilization with structural differentiation.” Due to limited land supply in core areas, high-quality projects will have strong price support; while in suburban areas with high inventory, prices may still face downward adjustments.

On December 24, 2025, Beijing introduced new housing policies: non-local families with social security or individual income tax payments of only two years can purchase commercial housing within the Fifth Ring Road, while outside the Fifth Ring Road, the requirement is reduced to one year. Meanwhile, for mortgage applicants using public housing funds to buy a second home, the minimum down payment ratio was adjusted from no less than 30% to no less than 25%.

So, have the policies of optimizing purchase restrictions and lowering mortgage rates achieved the expected results?

According to data from Centaline Research, in the first two months of this year, Beijing’s second-hand housing market remained active, with a total of 23,000 second-hand units sold, a 4.7% decrease year-on-year amid a high baseline; the overall new home market is still in the recovery stage, with 466,000 square meters of new commercial residential transactions in the first two months.

Regarding prices, based on the Centaline 100-city second-hand residential price index, prices in Beijing’s second-hand market continued to decline in the first two months, but the decline has narrowed compared to the end of last year. Cao Jingjing noted: “Since the end of last year, the number of second-hand homes listed in Beijing has decreased, and the supply increase trend has eased, which is expected to have a positive impact on price expectations.”

Buyers’ sentiment is stabilizing, developers are preparing to move into “core districts”

“The recent change in buyers’ mentality mainly manifests in two aspects: first, the release of accumulated demand from earlier; second, influenced by the policy signals from the Two Sessions, although no unexpectedly strong stimulus has been introduced, the policy tone has become more stable, which helps stabilize and promote market sentiment,” said the aforementioned person from China Merchants Shekou Beijing.

Staff from Greentown Xiaoyue and Feng also told the reporter that after the Spring Festival, clients’ decision-making speed has significantly increased, mostly among those who had been holding cash and waiting. With market warming, they have become more determined. “Actually, more buyers see the increase in transaction volume and the bottoming of prices, which boosts confidence in stopping the decline.”

Many buyers expressed similar views to the reporter: they no longer expect large drops and have given up on “bottom-fishing” fantasies, instead focusing on whether the housing can meet their real living needs.

Cao Jingjing said that as the traditional off-season after the Spring Festival ends, Beijing’s housing market is gradually warming. It is expected that second-hand transactions in March will maintain a certain scale, and with quality projects continuously entering the market, new home transactions are likely to stabilize and gradually rebound.

“This year, we definitely plan to move into Beijing’s core districts. Our projects have been scattered before, but this year we will mainly look at high-quality land in Haidian and Chaoyang,” said the person from China Merchants Shekou Beijing.

Cao Jingjing believes that at the end of February, Shanghai announced the “Seven Policies,” which expanded housing demand and reduced purchase costs through “lowering purchase restrictions + increasing public housing fund limits + property tax reductions.” The policy looseness has again surpassed Beijing. In the future, Beijing still has room to optimize policies regarding purchase restrictions and public housing support.

CICC recently released a research report stating that after four years of deep adjustment, China’s real estate market is beginning to see a structural turnaround. Combining supply-side clearing and continued policy efforts, the turning point in Beijing and Shanghai’s housing markets is approaching, with expectations that housing prices will stabilize in 2026. As the national real estate bellwether, both cities are continuously optimizing second-hand inventory, with decreasing listing volumes, increased delistings, and steady transaction recovery driven mainly by natural declines in listings, more delistings, and gradual transaction improvements—not just short-term policy effects.