How Does the "Spring Festival Displacement" Affect the Economic Kickoff

WealthCoffee · 2026-03-11T01:43:56+00:00

Market attention to the economic data for January and February has intensified, but the "Spring Festival offset" may lead to data fluctuations, affecting economic expectations. As a moving holiday, the Spring Festival has a significant impact on the year-over-year growth rate of first-quarter economic data, potentially boosting the January-February figures and lowering March data.

WealthCoffee

2026-03-11 01:43:56

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Economic data for January and February are approaching release, and the market is very focused on the quality of the “good start.” However, the “longest Spring Festival in history” may cause significant “Spring Festival misalignment” effects, disrupting year-on-year economic data at the start of the year and thereby influencing market expectations.

Question: How significant is the impact of “Spring Festival misalignment”? Could it push up January-February economic data and depress March data?

Looking back at history, “Spring Festival misalignment” can significantly disturb monthly economic data in the first quarter, affecting market perceptions of a strong start to the year. Traditional fixed holidays (“National Day,” “May Day”) have little impact on year-on-year growth rates of economic indicators, but Spring Festival is a “floating holiday” with a long ripple effect and wide influence, which can cause sharp fluctuations in year-on-year growth rates for January to March each year. In some years, the fluctuation can reach as much as 40 percentage points. Even when looking at the combined data for January and February, these fluctuations still exist.

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