Huaxi Securities: Three Major Price Increase Trends Support the A-Share Market

Western Securities points out that by 2026, the main structural trend will shift from technology to the inflation chain. From the SW primary industry perspective, in 2026, oil and petrochemicals, coal, chemicals, and non-ferrous metals will lead in gains. Under the catalyst of geopolitical tensions, the inflation chain market may continue to unfold. Regarding imported inflation, focus on the energy chain, non-ferrous metals, and agricultural products. Among these, the energy chain has a higher certainty of price increases due to geopolitical influences, including sectors such as oil and gas, coal chemical industry, upstream raw materials in chemicals, and shipping. For non-ferrous metals, the price increase certainty is relatively high for minor metals and aluminum, while gold and copper show a mixed pattern of gains and declines. In agricultural products, focus on feed raw materials, fertilizers, and pesticides. Concerning endogenous inflation, pay attention to traditional industries resisting internal competition, including chemicals, steel, coal, building materials, and hogs. Among these, the chemical sector, driven by rising crude oil prices, has already entered a price increase zone; prices for coal, steel, building materials, and hogs remain low and may have room for recovery. Regarding technology-driven price increases, focus on the upstream segments of the AI computing industry chain, including computing infrastructure (servers, computing chips, etc.), storage chips, optical communication and PCB upstream materials (fiber optics, glass fibers, etc.), and power energy.