Tonight's CPI: It's not just about the data, but oil prices

Tonight's US February CPI is expected to be 2.4% year-over-year, but this data does not account for the sharp rise in oil prices in March, which is essentially an "outdated signal."

Goldman Sachs estimates that a $10 increase in oil prices leads to approximately 0.28% inflation rise; the Middle East conflict has pushed oil prices above $100, and in the coming months, US inflation may return above 3%, directly suppressing rate cut expectations.

Transmission logic:
Oil price surge → Inflation expectations rebound → Rate hike delay → US dollar and Treasury yields strengthen → BTC and other risk assets come under pressure

Operational points:
• Data releases only cause short-term volatility and do not determine medium-term direction
• The key variables are oil prices and Middle East situation, with a focus on Powell's comments on energy inflation
• Short-term light positions for speculation, medium-term follow oil prices and geopolitical risk pricing
#原油价格回落 $BTC