9866 Analysis | NIO's first quarterly profit, stock price once rose nearly 20%, reaching a three-month high. Everbright: Expect automotive delivery data to be sufficiently "stimulating"!

NIO (09866)
Last quarter, it reported a profit of 1.22 billion RMB for the first time, surpassing market expectations, and the delivery outlook for the first quarter also surprised the market. After a gap-up opening, the stock once rose nearly 20%, reaching a high of HKD 45.66, the highest level since November last year. China Everbright Securities pointed out that with strong earnings, the stock price can remain optimistic in the short term, but slowing sales growth of new cars and high debt levels may pose resistance to the upward trend.

Everbright International Securities strategist Wu Lixian stated in our video program “ET Market Opening” that NIO had already issued profit forecasts in February, so turning a loss into a profit in Q4 last year was within market expectations. The company expects vehicle deliveries to be between 80,000 and 83,000 units, which can boost market sentiment. “It has already announced delivery figures for the first two months, both exceeding 20,000 units. To reach over 80,000 units in the first quarter, just considering March alone, it needs to surpass 30,000 units. I think this is quite encouraging for the market.”

Everbright: Expected strong March sales to boost the market

Wu Lixian continued, “Gross profit margin is also very well received by the market. Last quarter, the vehicle gross profit margin reached 17%. What does this mean? Currently, in the Hong Kong stock market, BYD (01211), as a leading company, has a gross profit margin of about 18% in recent quarters. So, NIO’s 17% margin in Q4 last year is already very favorable.”

He believes the stock price could short-term target HKD 45 to HKD 48. However, attention should be paid to high debt levels and the sales growth of main models ES8 and L9.