Bitcoin to $1 million? Bitwise CIO says it could happen under these conditions

Bitcoin could reach $1 million per coin if it captures a meaningful share of the global store-of-value market, according to a new memo from Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management.

Summary

• Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan says Bitcoin could reach $1 million if it captures about 17% of the global store-of-value market.
• The analysis frames Bitcoin as a competitor to gold, which currently dominates the store-of-value sector.
• Increasing adoption through spot Bitcoin ETFs and institutional investment could help drive Bitcoin’s market share higher.

Bitcoin’s path to $1M runs through gold’s market: Bitwise CIO

In the memo titled “How Bitcoin Gets to $1 Million,” Hougan argues that Bitcoin’s (BTC) long-term valuation depends largely on its ability to compete with traditional store-of-value assets such as gold and government bonds.

Hougan estimates the global store-of-value market at roughly $38 trillion, with Bitcoin currently accounting for only a small portion of that total.

The largest share is held by gold, which he describes as Bitcoin’s most direct competitor.

According to the analysis, if the store-of-value market grows to around $120 trillion over the next decade and Bitcoin captures roughly 17% of that market, the cryptocurrency could reach a valuation close to $1 million per coin.

Hougan argues that such a scenario is not as far-fetched as it once seemed, citing the rapid institutional adoption of Bitcoin in recent years.

A key factor driving that adoption has been the launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the United States, which have opened the asset class to pension funds, financial advisors and other institutional investors that previously had limited access to crypto markets.

Hougan said these developments have helped position Bitcoin as a legitimate macro asset alongside traditional stores of value. As institutional allocations increase and global demand for non-sovereign assets grows, Bitcoin could gradually gain market share within the broader store-of-value ecosystem.

“As I see it, the base case—that the store-of-value market will continue to grow as it has, and bitcoin will continue to gain market share as it has—leads you to much, much higher prices than we have today,” Hougan wrote.

The memo stops short of predicting an exact timeline for the $1 million milestone, but suggests the target could be achievable within roughly a decade if Bitcoin adoption continues to expand and the broader market for store-of-value assets grows.