Bitcoin Oversold Rebound Verification: The Rebound Is Not a Reversal | Special Analysis

Key Points:

• Deep analysis of HYPE multi-cycle trend structure: weekly tracking. (See Part 1 for details)

• Short-term BTC strategy execution validation: Last week, Bitcoin followed the established short-term strategy, completing a short position (1x leverage), successfully achieving approximately 6.41% profit. (See Table 1 for details)

• Mid-term BTC strategy execution validation: Last week, Bitcoin continued holding a short position built at $89,000 (1x leverage), with the closing price around $65,971, yielding approximately 25.88% profit, with a maximum gain of about 32.58% during the period.

• Short-term core view validation: Bitcoin maintained a weak sideways oscillation last week, consistent with expectations.

• This week’s market outlook and medium- and short-term trading strategies.

The following will review market predictions, strategy execution, and specific trading processes in detail.

1. HYPE Multi-Cycle Trend Structure Analysis and Short-Term Trading Review:

HYPE Daily K-line chart

Figure 1

In our weekly review on February 22, we first highlighted the investment opportunity in HYPE, clearly indicating the potential for a major upward wave (Wave III). On March 1, we reiterated: the February 24 low at $25.60 might be the start of Wave III, which is currently underway.

1. Major trend structure analysis (see Figure 1): (Based on market evolution after January 21)

• Wave I (Driving Wave): From the January 21 low of $20.46 to the February 3 high of $38.41, lasting 14 days, with a maximum increase of 87.73%.

• Wave II (Correction Wave): From the February 3 high of $38.41 to the February 24 low of $25.60, lasting 20 days, with a maximum decline of 33.35%.

• Wave III (Potential Driving Wave): From the February 24 low of $25.60 to present, ongoing for 13 days, with a maximum rise of 31.5%.

• From moving averages: The upward trend starting February 24 has effectively broken through multiple moving average resistances. The current price is testing key medium-term moving averages (such as the 21-day MA), to assess support strength after breakout. Volume shows a healthy pattern of “rising volume on upward moves, decreasing volume on pullbacks,” indicating good volume-price coordination.

• From momentum quantification model: The daily momentum line remains above zero, indicating a clear bullish trend. The current trend is in the phase of momentum accumulation and consolidation.

2. Small-Scale Structure Analysis (based on market movements after March 2):

HYPE 1-hour K-line chart

Figure 2

In (Figure 2), it shows that the upward move from the February 24 low reached a high of $33.69 on March 2 before entering correction. We will analyze the 1-hour structure to identify signals of the correction’s end and potential turning points.

• Internal structure segmentation: (from the March 2 high of $33.69 to now)

Divided into 5 segments: 9-10, 10-11, 11-12, 12-13, 13-14, forming a complete correction pattern.

• Central zone construction: Among these, 9-10 is the entry phase, 13-14 is the exit phase, with 10-11, 11-12, 12-13 forming the central zone.

• Turning point formation and validation: As shown in (Figure 2), the entry and exit segments have shown divergence signals, suggesting the correction may end at point 12. If the upward move from point 12 is confirmed by breaking above $31.5 resistance and then surpassing the local high of $32.75, the correction is likely over, and a new upward wave could begin. (Note: subsequent corrections should not fall below about $29.44 at point 12; otherwise, the conclusion shifts, and the correction’s turning point is delayed.)

3. HYPE Upside Risks: Although HYPE’s trend has some independence, it remains influenced by Bitcoin’s overall environment. If Bitcoin weakens further and breaks key supports (around $65,000), it could increase selling pressure on altcoins, impacting HYPE’s rebound momentum.

4. HYPE Short-Term Trading Review (1x leverage): (03.02–03.08)

We forecasted that HYPE remains in an upward trend on the daily chart. Last week, based on the core “trend-following” strategy and analysis of hourly correction structures, we did not open new long positions during this period.

2. Bitcoin Last Week’s Strategy and Key Level Review: (03.02–03.08)

1. Short-term Strategy Review: (see Table 1)

We strictly followed our self-developed spread trading model and momentum quantification model signals, combined with market trend forecasts, executing one short-term trade last week with a profit of 6.41%.

① Summary of Bitcoin short-term trades (1x leverage):

Table 1

② Short-term trade review: (see Figure 3)

• Entry: Short at around $72,760 after a rebound to the important resistance near $74,500 encountered resistance, triggered by the top warning signal from the spread model (green dot) and confirmed by two major models’ short signals.

• Risk control: initial stop-loss above $75,500.

• Exit: Close position near $68,095 after price fell to about $68,000, with the spread model’s bottom warning signal (red dot) triggered.

• Summary: this trade yielded a profit of 6.41%.

Bitcoin 60-minute K-line chart: (Momentum quantification + Spread trading models)

Figure 3 (Short-term trading illustration)

3. Mid-term Strategy Review:

Hold the 60% short position built around $89,000 (January 28), with the closing price last week around $65,971, achieving approximately 25.88% profit.

3. Bitcoin Technical Indicator Analysis

Using our self-constructed trading system, we analyze multiple technical indicators from multi-model and multi-dimensional perspectives.

1. Weekly level analysis, as shown in (Figure 4):

Bitcoin Weekly K-line chart: (Momentum quantification + Sentiment quantification)

Figure 4

• Momentum Model: Indicators show the momentum line trending downward, negative energy bars shrinking, with no divergence signals.

• Sentiment Model: Blue sentiment line at 23, zero strength; yellow sentiment line at 11, zero strength; peak value is 0.

• Digital Monitoring Model: Moving averages show a bearish alignment; last week’s candle was a small bullish candle with a long upper shadow, up about 0.3%; no bottom signals detected.

Overall assessment: Based on these three models, Bitcoin’s weekly trend remains clearly bearish and continues. No divergence, extreme sentiment release, or bottom signals have appeared. The market has been consolidating sideways for weeks, with a high probability of testing lower levels again.

2. Daily level analysis, as shown in (Figure 5):

Bitcoin Daily K-line chart: (Momentum quantification + Sentiment quantification)

Figure 5

• Momentum Model: Last week, the trend showed a “rise then fall” pattern. Momentum line below zero, rising in sync, with unordered positive energy bars.

• Sentiment Model: After last Sunday’s close, blue sentiment at 19, zero strength; purple sentiment at 35, zero strength, slowly recovering from oversold.

Overall assessment: The momentum and sentiment models suggest the daily trend remains bearish. The recent rebound is a short-term oversold bounce, but due to chaotic buying momentum, cautious market sentiment, and low capital participation, the rebound’s strength is weak and unlikely to be sustained.

4. Market Outlook for This Week: (03.09–03.15)

1. Construction of Bitcoin’s upward core (based on the low point after February 6): (Weekly update)

Bitcoin 4-hour K-line chart

Figure 6

Using the 4-hour cycle:

• Core construction: As seen in (Figure 6), an “upward core” structure is forming. Resistance around $72,300, support near $62,500; upper boundary about $68,800, lower boundary about $66,250.

2. C-2 wave rebound end judgment:

• We maintain our previous core analysis: The upward move from the February 6 low (~$60,000) is a super-overbought rebound within a large C wave correction, likely followed by a C-3 wave decline.

• Bottom warning: The spread trading model triggered a bottom warning signal (red dot) near the endpoint 0 on February 6, accurately capturing the start of C-2 wave.

• Top warning: Recently formed endpoint 11 triggered a top warning signal (green dot). The sequential bottom and top signals confirm a complete rebound wave, suggesting upward momentum may weaken.

3. This week’s core view: Expect consolidation; the oversold rebound of Wave C-2 may be nearing its end. Focus on directional signals. Strategy should adhere to “reduce positions on rallies (longs) and control risk.”

4. Key resistance levels:

• First resistance zone: $72,300–$74,500 (previously dense trading area)

• Second resistance zone: $79,500–$80,600 (near November 2025 low)

5. Key support levels:

• First support: around $65,000 (important previous support)

• Second support: $60,000–$62,500 (near February 6 low)

• Third support: around $57,400

5. Weekly Trading Strategy (excluding unexpected news): (03.09–03.15)

1. Mid-term strategy: see Figure 7

Bitcoin Daily K-line chart: (Position Monitoring Model)

Figure 7

Position Monitoring Model: Currently, the price is below the “long-short drift” zone (yellow), so continue holding the 60% short position established at $89,000 (January 28).

• If the price effectively breaks above $74,500, reduce the mid-term position to 40%.

• If the price breaks above the “long-short drift” zone and stabilizes, close all mid-term positions.

2. Short-term strategy: Use 30% position with stop-loss based on support/resistance levels, seeking spread trading opportunities (using 30-minute/60-minute cycles).

3. Given the medium-term bearish trend, to adapt to market complexity and based on signals from our trading models, we propose two short-term plans:

• Plan A: Resist rebound, short on rallies

• Entry: When the price rebounds to around $72,300–$74,500 and triggers resistance signals plus top signals from models, establish 30% short positions.

• Risk control: initial stop-loss above $75,500.

• Exit: Gradually close positions near key support levels, locking in profits.

• Plan B: Trend break and short on breakdown

• Entry: When the price breaks below the central zone lower boundary ($66,250) and retraces without stabilization, combined with top signals, establish 30% short positions.

• Risk control: initial stop-loss above $67,500.

• Exit: Close positions near support levels with model signals.

6. Special Reminders:​​

1. When opening positions: Immediately set initial stop-loss.

2. When profit reaches 1%: Move stop-loss to breakeven (entry price).

3. When profit reaches 2%: Move stop-loss to 1% profit level.

4. Continuous tracking: For every additional 1% profit, move stop-loss up by 1%, to protect and lock gains.

Financial markets are volatile; all analysis and strategies should be dynamically adjusted. The views, models, and strategies discussed are based on personal technical analysis only, for personal trading logs, and do not constitute investment advice. Market risks are inherent; please trade cautiously and do not base decisions solely on this information.