Despite the crises imposed by wars on the global economy, they also create financial opportunities for some investors, as was evident during the military escalation related to the war with Iran, where traders profited from geopolitical bets on the Polymarket platform.

Traders on the platform traded nearly $529 million in contracts related to the timing of military strikes, according to Bloomberg.

Alongside these trades, blockchain investigators began searching for unusual patterns in bets placed before the strikes occurred.

👈Big Profits Due to Orders

Data from analytics firm Bubblemaps SA showed that six accounts on Polymarket made approximately $1 million in profits by betting on the United States carrying out a military strike against Iran by February 28.

According to the analysis, all these accounts were newly created in February, and they made no other bets except those related to the timing of the American strikes.

Some shares in these contracts were also purchased at very low prices, reaching about 10 cents per share, just hours before reports of the first explosions in Tehran.

Blockchain analysts indicate that these patterns may be characteristic of trading based on insider information in prediction markets, a sector that still lacks clear regulatory oversight or an agreed-upon methodology to distinguish between luck and leaks.

👈Bets on Events

Polymarket, one of the largest prediction market platforms, has turned into a broad hub for betting on geopolitical events, in an environment that is largely unregulated, making it difficult to distinguish between analysis-based bets and those based on undisclosed information.

Nicolas Faiman, CEO of Bubblemaps, said in an email: "Prediction markets are among the first products that allow direct betting on geopolitical events. In cases of wars or conflicts, some information may circulate within limited circles before being announced to the public."

He added that the platform usually only requires an electronic wallet to trade, which provides a high level of anonymity and may encourage some informed participants to take early positions in the market.

As military developments continue, Polymarket has opened new contracts to bet on other scenarios, including: whether the United States will strike Iraq by the end of March; however, these new contracts have so far recorded limited trading volume.

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