Wolfe raises target price for Eli Lilly, optimistic about oral weight loss drugs and cardiovascular metabolism product portfolio

Investing.com - Wolfe analysts say that Eli Lilly’s experimental oral weight loss drug forglipron may have greater commercial potential. The firm has raised its target price, expecting strong long-term demand and continued dominance in the weight loss market. The company’s target price has been raised from $1,250 to $1,325.

After raising expectations for the long-term sales of forglipron, Eli Lilly received a buy rating. Wolfe now estimates that the drug’s annual peak revenue could reach approximately $44 billion, up from the previous forecast of $32 billion and exceeding the market consensus of about $26 billion.

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Eli Lilly’s stock surged significantly in 2025 but has fallen 8% so far this year as investors weigh the upcoming launch of this oral drug against the company’s valuation. The brokerage believes that, considering the expected growth scale, the stock’s valuation is reasonable.

Wolfe states that this oral GLP-1 therapy could expand the obesity treatment market by combining potent weight loss effects with the convenience of a pill.

The firm compares this potential launch to early drug categories like statins and erectile dysfunction medications, which expanded treatment acceptance after entering the market.

Analysis suggests that as more patients benefit from easier-to-use treatments, the obesity market could grow. Wolfe notes that oral administration may help eliminate barriers associated with injections and unlock demand from people who have not yet started treatment.

The firm also indicates that limited insurance coverage is unlikely to hinder early demand. It points out that early drugs like erectile dysfunction treatments saw strong growth despite reimbursement restrictions when they launched, and current obesity therapies are already showing robust demand.

Wolfe expects the market to support multiple competing drugs. While there may be differences in efficacy and dosing requirements, the brokerage believes multiple therapies could capture significant market share.

The firm forecasts that Eli Lilly will maintain its leadership in obesity treatment, potentially holding about 67% of the market share by 2030 and around 57% by 2035.

Forglipron is currently under regulatory review in the U.S., with a decision expected by April 10, 2026.

Wolfe states that the company’s broader cardiovascular and metabolic product portfolio should continue to drive growth. The firm expects that, based on the approximately $65 billion revenue in 2025, future revenues will grow at an annual rate of over 15% in the next two years.

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