U.S. Stocks Close｜U.S. military urges Iranian civilians to stay away from the Strait of Hormuz, warning of potential attack targets. Oil prices rise 4%. Dow drops 289 points. Nasdaq remains steady.

U.S. Central Command issues warning to Iranian civilians, stating that the Iranian regime is using civilian ports along the Strait of Hormuz for military operations, threatening international shipping, and becoming legitimate military targets under international law. Oil prices rise again, with the Dow Jones dropping up to 520 points.

The Dow closed at 47,417 points, down 289 points; the S&P 500 retraced 0.08%, at 6,775 points; the Nasdaq slightly rebounded 0.08%, at 22,716 points. Oracle’s earnings and outlook exceeded expectations, with shares soaring 9.2%; Nvidia rose 0.7%.

Oil prices continue to climb, with New York crude settling at $87.25, up 4.55%; Brent crude settled at $91.98, up 4.76%.

Iranian media report that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement claiming that the Mayuree Naree was attacked after ignoring warnings from the IRGC Navy. According to shipping website marinetraffic, the Mayuree Naree is currently in the Strait of Hormuz.

The Associated Press quotes a military spokesperson saying, “The policy of proportional retaliation has ended; from now on, our policy will be sustained strikes. No oil shipment will pass through the Strait of Hormuz to benefit the U.S., Zionist regime, and their partners.”

However, Japan and other countries will release oil reserves. The International Energy Agency (IEA) issued a statement that 32 member countries agreed on Wednesday (11th) to release 400 million barrels of emergency oil reserves into the market — the largest ever — to address the chaos in the oil market caused by the Middle East war.

Chubb will lead a U.S. government-led plan to insure ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz. As part of a $20 billion plan, Chubb will cooperate with the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (IDFC) to help oil tankers and other commercial vessels resume navigation under the risk of war with Iran.

U.S. February inflation data met expectations, with overall CPI rising 2.4% year-over-year and increasing 0.1 percentage points to 0.3% month-over-month; core CPI held steady at 2.5% annually, but monthly growth slowed 0.1 percentage points to 0.2%. Notably, this does not yet reflect the impact of the surge in international oil prices due to the Middle East conflict.

The Trump administration reportedly will initiate a trade investigation to pave the way for new tariffs; The New York Times reports that after the Supreme Court rejected Trump’s tariff agenda, Washington will announce a series of trade investigations on Wednesday under Section 301 of the Trade Act, covering issues like digital service taxes and currency manipulation, marking an important step in rebuilding the “tariff wall” under Trump.

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Market Trends:

【21:30】Dow opens 22 points lower at 47,683; Nasdaq up 0.3% at 22,765; S&P up 7 points at 6,788.

【19:04】Dow futures up 133 points; Nasdaq futures up 0.2%; S&P futures up 16 points.

【01:50】Dow futures up 121 points at 47,866; S&P futures up 18 points at 6,805; Nasdaq futures up 58 points or 0.2% at 25,041.

【12:47】【Iran Crisis】Oil prices rise; Fed’s stance shifts hawkish? US banks warn market may be misjudging the situation, with a significant rate cut still possible.

【10:48】【Iran Crisis】EIA forecasts Brent crude will stay above $95 for the next two months, expected to fall back to around $70 by year-end.

【09:53】Nvidia partners with competitors of OpenAI, providing 1 gigawatt Vera Rubin chips to Thinking Machines.

【08:59】【Fed Chair】Senator Thom Tillis meets with Waller, reiterates that the Department of Justice will block Powell’s nomination before ending investigation.

【08:31】【Iran Crisis】IEA reportedly proposes releasing over 180 million barrels of oil reserves; oil prices turn from rising to falling.

【07:45】【AI & Defense】Anthropic states its AI tools are blacklisted, potentially costing the company billions.

【07:25】【AI & Oracle】Oracle beats earnings expectations, surges 8% after hours.

【06:26】【Iran Crisis】Iran plans to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz, with thousands in stock; Trump warns of unprecedented military consequences (ongoing updates).

$1 and below for March 10 U.S. stock market overview====

Tuesday: White House: US did not escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz; Dow drops 34 points; oil prices narrow losses

Market focuses on latest developments in Middle East, oil prices remain soft, and the Dow turns lower. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright posted on social media that the U.S. Navy successfully escorted a tanker through the Strait of Hormuz, but the post was soon deleted. White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said the U.S. did not escort ships.

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Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps responds, claiming the U.S. military’s escort claim is a complete lie, and any actions by the U.S. and allies will be blocked within Iran’s missile and drone range.

Market hopes for an end to the US-Iran conflict; NY crude settles at $83.45, down 11.94%; Brent drops 11.28%, at $87.8.

The Dow initially surged 479 points, then retraced 34 points to close at 47,706; the S&P 500 fell 0.21%; Nasdaq edged down 0.01%, while the China concept index Golden Dragon rose 1.96%.

U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth states Tuesday will be the most intense day of military strikes against Iran, deploying the most fighters and bombers. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Milley says the U.S. is striking Iranian missile boats.

Hegseth describes this as a targeted, precise strike, not a prolonged “nation-building” war.

UAE oil refinery halted operations after drone attacks. Seven countries’ energy ministers (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, US) held a meeting Tuesday to discuss releasing oil reserves. CNBC sources say the U.S. considers releasing 300-400 million barrels of oil appropriate.

Amazon is returning to the bond market, with Bloomberg reporting the company plans to issue up to 11 tranches, with maturities from 2 to 50 years. The longest tranche, maturing in 2076, is preliminarily priced about 1.55 percentage points above U.S. Treasuries.

The dollar index drops 0.3% to 98.93; U.S. 10-year Treasury yields stabilize at 4.159%. Gold rebounds 1.9%, at $5,206 per ounce.

Key stocks: Memory stocks rebound; Micron (MU) up 3.5%, back above $400; SanDisk (SNDK) up 5%.

Oracle reports earnings after market close.

JH Henderson Global Multi-Asset Team head Adam Hetts and portfolio manager Oliver Blackbourn warn that supply disruptions, rising oil and natural gas prices, and unclear cooling pathways increase inflation risks and market volatility. If conflict persists, economic pressure could deepen; political considerations may also quickly resolve the situation as a “victory” or rapid end, leaving asset outlook uncertain.

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Market Trends:

【21:30】Memory stocks rebound; Micron up 2%; Dow up 101 points; Nasdaq up 0.3%; oil retraces 8%.

【18:00】Dow futures up 101 points; Nasdaq futures up 0.3%; oil retraces 7%; Oracle (ORCL) earnings after close.

【12:43】Dow futures down 183 points at 47,586; S&P futures down 24 points at 6,777; Nasdaq futures down 84 points or 0.3% at 24,906.

【12:09】【Apple】Apple reduces dependence on China; iPhone production in India now accounts for 25%.

【11:00】【AI & Defense】Anthropic sues, demands U.S. DoD to remove blacklist designation.

【10:31】【Iran Crisis】Trump says war will end soon; gold stabilizes and rebounds.

【08:28】【Iran Crisis】Dozens of oil tankers reach the strait attempting to break through; Iran issues further warnings; Trump at press conference: war will end soon but no timeline promised (ongoing updates).

【08:26】【AI & Nvidia】Nvidia reportedly plans to launch open-source AI platform “NemoClaw.”

【08:00】【Apple】Apple reportedly delays smart home display device launch, waiting for new Siri.

$1 and below for March 9 U.S. stock market overview====

Monday: Trump: War nearly over; oil prices plunge; Dow surges 239 points

U.S. President Trump in an interview said the war is nearly over, describing it as very complete; Iran has no navy, no communications, no air force, and only a few missiles left. Their drones are being destroyed everywhere, including their drone manufacturing plants.

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“Look at them, they have nothing left. In military terms, there’s nothing remaining,” Trump said. “The U.S. can do many things in the Strait of Hormuz,” threatening Iran with consequences if they obstruct the waterway. “They’ve already shot all they can; they’d better not play any tricks, or it will be their end… If they do anything bad, it will be Iran’s end. You will never hear that name again.” Trump also said the strait is currently open, claiming ships are entering, but he is still “considering taking control.”

That same afternoon, the U.S. Department of Defense posted on X (formerly Twitter): “We are just getting started” and “No mercy.”

Following the statements, oil prices plummeted, and U.S. stocks rebounded. Brent crude fell 1.5% to $91.2; NY crude dropped 3.4% to $88.

The Dow initially plunged 886 points to a low of 46,615; the S&P fell 1.5% to 6,636; Nasdaq dropped 1.5% to 22,061.

But the market closed with the Dow up 239 points at 47,740; S&P up 0.8% at 6,795; Nasdaq up 1.4% at 22,695.

Brent crude surged nearly 30%, approaching $120 per barrel. The G7 finance ministers held an emergency meeting to discuss coordinated release of strategic oil reserves by IEA to counter the spike after Gulf tensions.

French Finance Minister Roland Lescure said the G7 has not yet decided on releasing emergency oil reserves after the US-Israel war.

In Brussels, Lescure told reporters, “Our consensus is to use all necessary means to stabilize the market, including possible release of reserves if needed.” He added that governments are closely monitoring the situation, with no supply issues reported so far.

Japan’s Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said, “The IEA calls on countries to coordinate releasing oil reserves. Given the current situation, the G7 agrees to continue closely monitoring energy markets and take necessary measures to support global energy supply, including releasing oil reserves.” He also said that OECD, World Bank, and IMF officials participated in the meeting. The G7 will soon hold a ministerial meeting on energy to discuss further steps.

As of 2022 data, IEA member countries’ emergency oil reserves under OECD control are estimated at over 1.2 billion barrels, mostly crude oil. According to IEA rules, all members must maintain emergency reserves equivalent to at least 90 days of “net imports,” sufficient to support at least three months of normal consumption.

Market stabilizes; the dollar index falls 0.1% to 98.877; U.S. 10-year Treasury yields stabilize at 4.107%.

Gold’s decline narrows to 0.6%, at $5,138; silver rises 2.5%, at $86.63.

U.S. military continues to demonstrate strength. According to BBC, U.S. B-52 and B-1 heavy bombers are stationed at Royal Air Force Fairford in the UK, with three B-52s landing in one day — the first time B-52s have appeared in the UK since the conflict began.

B-52s are typical “forward-deployed” aircraft, signaling large-scale air campaigns or imminent escalation. As heavily armed “old cows,” once enemy air defenses are weakened, B-52s can deliver massive conventional ground-attack munitions, targeting infrastructure, industrial sites, or large ground forces for sustained destruction.

Additionally, U.S. markets will open one hour earlier at 9:30 p.m. Hong Kong time due to daylight saving time.

Swiss bank UBS notes that the oil market has entered a panic state, with prices soaring into triple digits, mainly driven by market sentiment, as the conflict itself has not seen any substantial changes. So far, supply disruptions are mainly due to cautious ships avoiding the Strait of Hormuz, causing trade blockages rather than military blockades. However, it is expected that in the coming week and beyond, Middle Eastern oil supply could face up to 75% shutdown.

The bank says it will continue to monitor the situation closely. No significant damage to energy infrastructure has been reported; Iran’s military power appears to be weakening. A solution to ensure shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains feasible. Given the fog of war, they reaffirm a neutral stance on oil and natural gas, maintaining the expectation that energy prices will peak at current or slightly higher levels.

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Market Trends:

【18:20】U.S. stocks rebound; Micron up 2%; Dow up 101 points; Nasdaq up 0.3%; oil surges over 10%, breaking $100.

【12:07】Dow futures down 1,006 points at 46,511; S&P futures down 130 points at 6,613; Nasdaq futures down 542 points or 2.2% at 24,127.

【12:07】【Iran Crisis】Iran conflict impacts financial markets; senior strategist Yardeni: probability of stock market crash before year-end increases to 35%.

【11:15】【Tencent】Reportedly plans to acquire Warner Bros. via Paramount, investing hundreds of millions.

【10:33】【Iran Crisis】Oil surges past $100, with NY crude up 30%, amid production cuts by major Middle Eastern producers.

【10:20】【Iran Crisis】Oil prices spike, dragging down Asia-Pacific markets; “Black Monday” hits Japan and Korea with declines over 7%; South Korea considers oil price cap measures.

【09:56】【Iran Crisis】JPMorgan estimates Middle Eastern oil capacity may decrease by 4 million barrels daily by next weekend.

【09:50】【Iran Crisis】Schroders’ Tedder: Oil may hit $100; “I won’t reduce energy stocks in next 2-3 years.”

【08:17】【Iran Crisis】Gold drops over 2%, testing $5,000; oil prices surge, fueling inflation fears.

【07:30】【Iran Crisis】Black Monday begins; oil prices rise 20%, approaching $111; Trump: low cost; Dow futures plunge 1,112 points (ongoing updates).

【07:30】【Global Outlook】Focus on Middle East conflict and U.S. inflation data; U.S. markets open one hour early at 9:30 p.m. HK time.

【07:30】Concerns over oil supply disruptions and poor U.S. employment data caused last week’s sharp decline; Dow once fell 945 points to 47,009; VIX spiked 21.6% to 28.88. Dow closed down 453 points; S&P down 1.33%; Nasdaq down 1.59%.

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Market activity last week, details at: 【U.S. Market Close】 Iran fires missiles at “Lincoln”; Brent hits $92; weak jobs report; Dow down 453; Nasdaq down 1.6%.