Bitcoin between $67-68K: Charles Edwards and analysts debate whether we are at the market bottom

The price of Bitcoin remains under pressure around $67,000, facing a critical moment that could determine the asset’s short-term fate. With the current quote at $70.63K as of March 11, traders and analysts are debating between bearish signals and historic buying opportunities. Charles Edwards, founder of the digital asset investment fund Capriole Investments, has been a leading proponent of the optimistic narrative at these levels, pointing out that we are facing one of the best opportunities in Bitcoin’s history.

The 200-week EMA: the line that defines everything

Bitcoin is once again under the scrutiny of the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA), a technical level that has historically acted as a critical barrier between bullish rallies and deeper declines. Analyst Rekt Capital noted that this line is positioned around $68,300, a zone Bitcoin must recover to avoid what is known in markets as an “accelerated bearish move.”

Historical data shows a recurring pattern: when the price closes below the 200-week EMA and then attempts to reclaim it as new resistance, a second wave of selling usually ensues. Rekt Capital compared this situation to previous bear markets, warning that a weekly close below $68,300 followed by rejection would position Bitcoin for further declines.

Meanwhile, the simple moving average (SMA) of 200 weeks forms what analysts call a “support cloud” along with the EMA. This zone, which Bitcoin has managed to hold so far, represents the last bastion before the price is exposed to lower levels not seen in some time.

The Mayer Multiple screams that Bitcoin is “historically cheap”

Beyond technical analysis of moving averages, a classic Bitcoin valuation metric is sending extraordinary signals. The Mayer Multiple, which measures the distance between the current price and the 200-day moving average, has reached levels that occur in less than 6% of all days in Bitcoin’s history.

According to data collected by analysts on social media, only 5.3% of days have recorded a Mayer Multiple as low as the current one. Traditionally, values below 0.8 indicate long-term accumulation conditions with high probabilities of return. The opposite scenario, with multiples above 2.4, warrants caution among investors.

William Clemente, head of strategy at OTC platform Styx, argues that both indicators — the Mayer Multiple and the 200-week EMA — are in long-term accumulation territory, suggesting that this is more of an opportunity than a threat.

Charles Edwards: “Historically one of the best buy signals”

The analysis becomes especially interesting when Charles Edwards, whose fund Capriole Investments is a reference in quantitative Bitcoin investing, offers his perspective. Edwards joined the chorus of optimistic voices, pointing out that while the price could go lower, these are “historically one of the best buy signals in Bitcoin’s history.”

Edwards’ observation contrasts with short-term pessimism. While some traders expect declines toward $50,000, the classic indicators suggest we are in a period of institutional and private accumulation. The fact that the Mayer Multiple has not fallen to these levels since the 2022 bear market reinforces Edwards’ thesis.

The coming days will be crucial. If Bitcoin closes above $68,300 this week, it could regain bullish momentum and once again target its all-time high of $69,000 from 2021. Conversely, if it fails to sustain this level, Charles Edwards’ and other optimists’ narratives will be put to the test again.