[US Stock Market Close] US military urges Iranian civilians to stay away from the Strait of Hormuz, warning it may become a target. Oil prices rise 4%. Dow drops 289 points. Nasdaq remains steady.

U.S. Central Command issues a warning to Iranian civilians, stating that the Iranian regime is using civilian ports along the Strait of Hormuz for military operations, threatening international shipping, and becoming a legitimate military target under international law. Oil prices rise again, with the Dow Jones dropping up to 520 points.

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Dow Jones closed at 47,417 points, down 289 points; S&P 500 retraced 0.08%, at 6,775 points; Nasdaq slightly rebounded 0.08%, at 22,716 points. Oracle’s earnings and outlook exceeded expectations, with shares soaring 9.2%; Nvidia rose 0.7%.

Oil prices continue to rise, with NYMEX crude settling at $87.25, up 4.55%; Brent crude settled at $91.98, up 4.76%.

Iranian media report that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement claiming that the Mayuree Naree was attacked after ignoring warnings from the IRGC Navy. According to shipping website marinetraffic, the Mayuree Naree is currently in the Strait of Hormuz.

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A military spokesperson quoted by the Associated Press said: “The policy of proportional retaliation has ended; from now on, our policy will be continuous strikes. No oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz will be allowed to benefit the U.S., Zionist regime, and their partners.”

However, Japan and other countries will release oil reserves. The International Energy Agency (IEA) issued a statement saying that its 32 member countries agreed on Wednesday (11th) to release 400 million barrels of emergency oil reserves into the market — the largest release ever — to address the chaos in the oil market caused by the Middle East war.

Chubb Insurance will lead a U.S. government-backed plan to insure ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz. As part of a $20 billion plan, Chubb will cooperate with the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (IDFC) to help oil tankers and other commercial vessels resume navigation under the risks of Iran’s war.

U.S. February inflation data met expectations, with overall CPI rising 2.4% year-over-year and increasing 0.1 percentage points to 0.3% month-over-month; core CPI held steady at 2.5% annually but slowed 0.1 percentage points to 0.2% monthly. Notably, this does not yet reflect the impact of soaring international oil prices due to the Middle East conflict.

The Trump administration reportedly will initiate a trade investigation to pave the way for new tariffs; The New York Times cited sources saying that after the Supreme Court rejected Trump’s tariff agenda, the Biden administration will announce a series of trade investigations on Wednesday under Section 301 of the Trade Act, covering digital service taxes and alleged currency manipulation, marking an important step in rebuilding the “tariff wall.”

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Market overview:

【21:30】Dow opens down 22 points at 47,683; Nasdaq up 0.3% at 22,765; S&P up 7 points at 6,788.

【19:04】Dow futures up 133 points; Nasdaq futures up 0.2%; S&P futures up 16 points.

【01:50】Dow futures up 121 points at 47,866; S&P futures up 18 points at 6,805; Nasdaq futures up 58 points or 0.2% at 25,041.

【12:47】【Iran crisis】Oil prices rise; Fed stance shifts hawkish? US banks warn market may be misjudging the situation, with a significant rate cut still possible.

【10:48】【Iran crisis】EIA: Brent crude will stay above $95 for the next two months, expected to fall back to around $70 by year-end.

【09:53】Nvidia partners with competitors of OpenAI, providing 1 gigawatt Vera Rubin chips to Thinking Machines.

【08:59】【Fed Chair】Senator Thom Tillis meets with Waller, reiterates opposition to Powell’s nomination before DOJ investigation ends.

【08:31】【Iran crisis】IEA reportedly proposes releasing over 180 million barrels of oil reserves; oil prices turn from rising to falling.

【07:45】【AI + Defense】Anthropic says its AI tools are blacklisted, potentially costing the company billions.

【07:25】【AI + ORCL】Oracle beats earnings expectations, surges 8% after hours.

【06:26】【Iran crisis】Iran plans to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz; thousands in stockpile. Trump warns of unprecedented military consequences (updating).

Below $1: US stock market on March 10====

Tuesday: White House: US did not escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz; Dow down 34; oil prices sharply narrowed losses

Market focuses on latest developments in Middle East, oil prices remain soft, and the Dow turns lower. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wirth posted on social media that the U.S. Navy successfully escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz, but the post was soon deleted. White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said the U.S. did not escort ships.

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Dow Jones closed at 47,740, down 239 points; S&P 500 up 0.8%; Nasdaq up 1.4%. Brent crude initially surged nearly 30%, approaching $120 per barrel, prompting G7 finance ministers to hold an emergency meeting to discuss coordinated release of strategic petroleum reserves by IEA to counter the spike after Gulf tensions.

French Finance Minister Roland Lescure said the G7 has not yet decided on releasing emergency oil reserves after the Iran conflict.

After participating in a virtual G7 finance ministers’ meeting in Brussels, Lescure told reporters, “Our consensus is to use all necessary means to stabilize the market if needed, including possible release of reserves.” He added that governments are closely monitoring the situation, with no supply issues reported so far.

Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said, “The IEA calls on countries to coordinate the release of oil reserves. Given the current situation, the G7 has agreed to continue closely monitoring energy markets and take necessary measures to support global energy supply, including releasing reserves.” He also mentioned that OECD, World Bank, and IMF officials participated in the meeting. The G7 will soon hold a ministerial meeting on energy to discuss further steps.

As of 2022 data, IEA member countries’ emergency oil reserves under OECD control are estimated at over 1.2 billion barrels, mostly crude oil. According to IEA rules, all members must maintain emergency reserves equivalent to at least 90 days of net imports, ensuring at least three months of supply under normal consumption.

Market stabilizes; the US dollar index falls 0.1% to 98.877; 10-year U.S. Treasury yields stabilize at 4.159%.

Gold prices narrowed their decline to 0.6%, at $5,138 per ounce; silver rose 2.5%, at $86.63.

U.S. military continues to demonstrate strength. According to BBC, U.S. B-52 and B-1 heavy bombers are stationed at Royal Air Force Fairford in the UK, with three B-52s landing in one day — the first time B-52s have appeared in the UK since the conflict erupted.

B-52s are typical “forward-deployed” aircraft, signaling that large-scale air campaigns or escalation are imminent. As heavily armed “old yellow cows,” once enemy air defenses are weakened, B-52s can deliver massive conventional ground-attack munitions, targeting infrastructure, industrial sites, or large ground forces for sustained destruction.

Additionally, U.S. markets will open one hour earlier at 9:30 p.m. Hong Kong time due to daylight saving time.

Swiss bank UBS notes that the oil market has entered a panic state, with prices soaring into triple digits, mainly driven by market sentiment, as the conflict itself has not seen any substantial changes. So far, supply disruptions are mainly due to cautious ships avoiding the Strait of Hormuz, causing trade blockages rather than military blockades. However, it is expected that Middle Eastern oil supply could face up to 75% shutdowns this week and beyond.

The bank says it will continue to monitor the situation closely. No significant damage to energy infrastructure has been reported; Iran’s military strength appears to be waning, and solutions to facilitate trade through the Strait of Hormuz remain feasible. Given the fog of war, it reaffirms a neutral stance on oil and natural gas, with a basic expectation that energy prices will peak at current or slightly higher levels.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets continue to update; details on the next page

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Market overview:

【18:20】Dow futures down 492 points, Nasdaq futures down 1.1%; oil surges over 10%, breaking $100; markets open one hour earlier for summer time.

【12:07】Dow futures down 1,006 points at 46,511; S&P futures down 130 points at 6,613; Nasdaq futures down 542 points or 2.2% at 24,127.

【12:07】【Iran crisis】Iran conflict impacts financial markets; senior strategist Yardeni: probability of a market crash before year-end increases to 35%.

【11:15】【Tencent】Reportedly plans to acquire Warner Bros. via Paramount, investing hundreds of millions.

【10:33】【Iran crisis】Oil surges past $100, NYMEX crude up 30%, with major Middle Eastern producers cutting output.

【10:20】【Iran crisis】Oil prices spike, dragging down Asia-Pacific stocks; “Black Monday” hits Japan and Korea with declines over 7%; South Korea considers implementing oil price caps.

【09:56】【Iran crisis】JPMorgan estimates Middle Eastern oil capacity may decrease by 4 million barrels daily by next weekend.

【09:50】【Iran crisis】Schroders’ Tedder: Oil may hit $100; “I don’t plan to reduce energy holdings in next 2-3 years.”

【08:17】【Iran crisis】Gold drops over 2%, testing $5,000; oil surge fuels inflation fears.

【07:30】【Iran crisis】Black Monday begins; oil up 20%, approaching $111; Trump: “small cost,” Dow futures plunge 1,112 points (updating).

【07:30】【Global outlook】Focus on Middle East conflict and US inflation data; markets open one hour early for summer time.

【07:30】Concerns over oil supply disruptions and worse-than-expected US jobs data caused last week’s sharp decline; Dow once fell 945 points to 47,009; VIX spiked 21.6% to 28.88; Dow closed down 453 points, S&P down 1.33%, Nasdaq down 1.59%.

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