Why Current Freight Rates Per Mile Remain Under Pressure in Today's Tight Trucking Market

The U.S. trucking sector is defying seasonal expectations in early 2026. Rather than experiencing the typical post-holiday slowdown, carriers and shippers continue to navigate a surprisingly constrained market where capacity remains scarce and freight rates per mile stay elevated compared to historical norms.

A 10% Rejection Rate Puts Pressure on Freight Rates and Shipper Plans

The STRI.USA index reveals the extent of the challenge: tender rejection rates are holding at 9.97%, meaning carriers are declining nearly 1 in 10 shipping offers. This rejection rate surpasses anything recorded in 2023, 2024, or the early months of 2025, matching only the elevated levels seen during the post-pandemic market recalibration of 2022.

Why are carriers turning down so many shipments? The answer is straightforward: insufficient available capacity combined with more attractive rates on the spot market. When shippers can’t find carriers for their loads, their logistics plans suffer immediate disruption, forcing them to either wait, pay premium rates, or explore alternative transportation modes.

How Spot Freight Rates Mirror Capacity Constraints

Current truckload spot rates, including fuel surcharges, are averaging $2.62 per mile. While this represents a modest pullback from the December peak of $2.76 per mile, these rates remain notably higher than seasonal patterns would typically suggest for this time of year. The persistence of elevated freight rates per mile serves as a direct indicator that supply and demand remain tightly balanced across the industry.

The data tells a story of persistent scarcity. When carriers can reject 10% of available loads, it’s because better opportunities exist elsewhere—a luxury afforded only in sellers’ markets where supply lags behind demand.

Geographic Disparities Shape Regional Freight Rate Dynamics

Market conditions are not uniform across the country. Chicago and Harrisburg are experiencing the tightest capacity constraints, with rejection rates of 9.51% and 9.45% respectively. These freight hubs are struggling hardest to secure outbound capacity for shippers.

Los Angeles presents a starkly different picture, with the lowest rejection rate among major markets at just 4.33%. This regional variation reflects differing supply-demand balances, import dynamics, and freight flow patterns. Import volumes overall remain subdued, with much incoming freight redirected to railroads rather than trucks—intermodal volumes climbed 2% last year and showed an 8% year-over-year increase in 2024 even as truckload volumes faced pressure.

Could 2026 Bring Major Shifts in Freight Transportation Priorities

Several developments suggest potential market pivots ahead. Recent ISM survey data revealed that year-end inventories contracted far faster than anticipated, prompting the National Retail Federation to raise its import forecasts. Additionally, consumer spending remained a significant driver of the strong 4.3% GDP growth recorded in Q3 2025, surpassing its contribution in the prior quarter.

If inventory depletion accelerates while consumer demand strengthens, shippers may increasingly prioritize speed and reliability, redirecting more freight from railroads back to truckload services. Faster delivery times and superior visibility could become competitive advantages worth paying premium freight rates per mile to secure. This scenario could drive spot rates even higher.

What Market Wildcards Could Disrupt Current Freight Rate Trends

However, current trajectories are far from guaranteed. A potential Supreme Court ruling on tariffs could fundamentally reshape international trade dynamics, providing importers with either confidence or uncertainty regarding their long-term sourcing strategies. Such developments remain possibilities rather than confirmed paths.

Assessing the Current Freight Rate Environment

For now, the trucking industry operates in a decidedly tight environment. Freight rates per mile remain elevated by recent historical standards, driven by capacity constraints and favorable demand dynamics. Whether this market structure persists depends on multiple factors—inventory trends, consumer behavior, regulatory developments, and potential macroeconomic shifts that could alter the entire freight transportation landscape in the coming months.