Can Bitcoin reverse its relative weakness after the PCE data release?

According to recent market analysis released by CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s performance over the past few months has indeed fallen short of expectations, showing a clear stagnation compared to traditional safe-haven assets like gold and silver. This phenomenon conceals complex market dynamics and shifts in capital allocation strategies, with upcoming PCE data potentially being the key to changing the situation.

Large Investors Continue to Cash Out, Suppressing Bitcoin Performance

Data shows that the most direct pressure on Bitcoin comes from ongoing selling by large holders. Since reaching its all-time high, Bitcoin ETFs have pulled back $5.1 billion, reflecting cautiousness among institutional investors. Since October, whale addresses have shown continuous cash-out activity, and this selling pressure has directly limited Bitcoin’s upward momentum.

In contrast, Bitcoin is still about 44% below its all-time high of $126,080, and over the past six months, this gap has actually widened. This stands in stark contrast to the performance of other risk assets.

Capital Flows into Safe-Haven Assets, Gold and Silver Strengthen

Against the backdrop of increasing global economic uncertainty, traditional safe-haven assets are attracting significant capital. Gold prices have surged approximately 25% above the 200-day moving average, and silver has hit a 45% increase, with these figures similar to market performance during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Meanwhile, tech stocks are also performing strongly amid the AI boom, with the S&P 500 just 1% below its all-time high and the Nasdaq 3% below its peak.

This shift in capital allocation reflects a change in market participants’ preference for diversified risk assets. Institutional investors are no longer solely betting on Bitcoin but are seeking balance across multiple asset classes.

PCE Data as a Key Turning Point for the Market

CryptoQuant points out that the release of PCE data could have a significant impact on the market. This economic indicator will directly influence expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy. If the PCE data shows a moderate inflation rate, it could further reinforce market confidence in easing policies, providing upward momentum for Bitcoin.

Notably, the correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq has gradually weakened since August, while the correlation with gold turned negative starting in July. This indicates that Bitcoin is gradually evolving independently, with its future trajectory increasingly influenced by macroeconomic policy environments rather than the performance of tech stocks.

The Substantial Significance of PCE Data for Bitcoin’s Outlook

PCE data is not only an economic indicator but also an important barometer of market sentiment. If the data confirms easing inflation pressures, expectations of Fed rate cuts will be further solidified, directly enhancing Bitcoin’s appeal as a hard asset within investment portfolios. The market’s shift from risk aversion to reallocation into aggressive assets could open new upward space for Bitcoin.

At this moment, the temperature of the PCE data will directly determine whether Bitcoin can emerge from the shadow of large-scale selling and once again attract capital attention.