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$ETH , High Probability High Impact (Most Vigilant Within 3–4 Weeks)
1. Middle East Conflict Escalation → Strait of Hormuz Shipping Disruption
Trigger Points: US-Israel strikes on Iran expand; Revolutionary Guards blockade strait; tanker attacks cause shipping insurance premiums to spike
Impact: Brent crude oil temporarily surges to $120–140; inflation expectations heat up; Federal Reserve delays rate cuts; crypto/US growth stocks bear concurrent pressure; miner selling pressure increases