【Institutional Strategy】The Foundation of This Round of A-Share Market Remains Solid

China Galaxy Securities believes that last Friday, the A-share market continued its correction, with the three major indices fluctuating and closing lower, and market sentiment remaining cautious; in terms of sectors, chemicals, wind power, and controlled nuclear fusion performed actively, while previously hot sectors like computing power leasing collectively declined, with the loss-making effect spreading; recently, influenced by external situations, resource sectors diverted a large amount of funds, leading to continued pressure on technology and small-cap growth stocks, with hot sector rotation accelerating and operational difficulty significantly increasing; from a technical perspective, the indices remain in range-bound consolidation, facing short-term direction choices, and attention should be paid to news developments and volume changes.

CICC Securities believes that last Friday, the A-share market faced resistance after rising, with slight fluctuations and consolidation. During the session, sectors such as batteries, wind power equipment, infrastructure, and electronic components performed relatively well; sectors like minor metals, oil and gas extraction, power grid equipment, and precious metals performed weaker. Recently, escalating Middle East tensions have triggered turbulence in global capital markets, and rising oil prices have suppressed risk appetite due to concerns about stagflation. Considering that domestic macro policies are becoming clearer, providing a solid bottom support for the market. The central bank has explicitly stated it will flexibly use tools like reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts to maintain ample liquidity; at the same time, supporting China Investment Corporation to play the role of a “stabilization fund” has boosted market confidence in the future trend. It is expected that the Shanghai Composite Index will likely remain in slight fluctuation and consolidation, and close attention should be paid to macroeconomic data, overseas liquidity changes, and policy movements.

CITIC Securities believes that recently, the A-share market has shown relatively strong resilience, with volatility significantly lower than overseas and Japanese and Korean markets. As the “spring agitation” trend ends and overseas “stagflation” trading heats up, the style of the A-share market has gradually shifted from technology to dividend styles, indicating a decline in risk appetite among funds. Under the background of increased macro uncertainty overseas, opportunities at the index level are still expected to wait, and recent market profitability has declined. In the short term, the view remains that “from after the Spring Festival to the end of April, A-share index movements will gradually return to intrinsic momentum, showing broad fluctuations, with increased two-way volatility, and opportunities at the index level still need to wait.” It is recommended to reasonably control positions and pay attention to three influencing factors: first, escalating overseas tensions. The Middle East conflict has caused oil prices to rise sharply, which may have long-term profound impacts on the global economy and asset prices. Second, the weakening of the “calendar effect.” As the spring agitation ends and the earnings disclosure season arrives, the market trend is expected to return to fundamentals. Third, breakthroughs in global AI technology. Recently, OpenClaw has become a hot topic in China’s tech sector, with AI applications accelerating infiltration, which is expected to gradually promote technological implementation. In the medium term, under the continuation of the “double easing” tone of fiscal and monetary policies, ongoing household savings asset inflows, improved corporate performance amid “anti-involution,” and continuous breakthroughs in global AI technology, the current A-share market remains solid. The recent Middle East conflict is expected to only affect short-term market sentiment and rhythm, not change the market direction. Confidence in the medium- and long-term positive trend remains, and excessive worry is unwarranted.