Zhongjin Wealth Futures: Hormuz Strait Closure Leads to 8 Million Barrels/Day Reduction in Global Oil Supply, Supply-Demand Gap Reaches 9-11 Million Barrels/Day

Before the war, the daily average crude oil and liquid fuel transportation through the Strait of Hormuz was about 19.2 million barrels, including approximately 15 million barrels of crude oil. The current shipping level has dropped more than 90% compared to normal. As the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, oil shipping disruptions have led to rising inventory pressures, and land storage in Gulf countries is becoming increasingly urgent. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait have been forced to significantly cut production, with a total loss of about 6.7 million barrels per day, accounting for roughly 6% of global oil supply. The IEA forecasts that global oil supply will decrease by an average of 8 million barrels per day in March. If trade flows cannot be restored in the short term, the losses will further expand.

Looking at the outlook, in January 2026, global oil supply is projected at 107.15 million barrels per day, with demand at 105.45 million barrels per day, consistent with previous oversupply expectations. Currently, a rough estimate suggests the global oil supply-demand gap is about 9 to 11 million barrels per day, roughly 10% of the dynamic balance. We remind traders that a blockade lasting around 30 days could fundamentally alter the global oil supply and demand balance, and this change would be irreversible in the medium term. (CICC Wealth Futures)