【Bank of China Securities·Macro: Commentary on February Financial Data】Financing Demand Remains Strong in January-February

In February, new social financing, new loans, M2 year-on-year growth rate, and M1 year-on-year growth rate all exceeded Wind’s consensus expectations; the main reason was the increase in RMB loans, mainly driven by higher demand from enterprises, while household loan demand remained relatively weak; government bond financing was relatively weak in February; the trend of residents moving deposits continued, but attention should be paid to the spillover effects of Middle Eastern geopolitical changes in March on the RMB capital market.

Summary

• In February, new social financing was 2.38 trillion yuan, an increase of 146.1 billion yuan compared to the same period last year, a decrease of 4.84 trillion yuan from January, and higher than Wind’s consensus forecast of 1.84 trillion yuan. The stock of social financing grew by 8.2% year-on-year in February, maintaining the same growth rate as January, slightly above Wind’s consensus expectation of 8.1%. In February, new RMB loans under the social financing umbrella totaled 848.4 billion yuan, an increase of 195.6 billion yuan from the same period last year, and 40.5 billion yuan less than in January.

• The increase in social financing compared to the same period last year was mainly due to RMB loans and bills. In terms of new scale for the month, government bonds increased by 1.40 trillion yuan, corporate bonds by 152.1 billion yuan; compared to the same period last year, the main contributors to the increase were RMB loans and bills. From financing channels, direct financing increased by 197.5 billion yuan, up 19.7 billion yuan from last year; on-balance sheet financing increased by 844.9 billion yuan, up 220.2 billion yuan; off-balance sheet financing increased by 191.8 billion yuan, mainly contributed by bills. Government bond financing in February was 290.3 billion yuan less than last year, but overall, the increase in new scale in January and February was roughly the same as last year.

• Regarding the structure of social financing stock, compared to January 2026, the proportion of government bonds increased by 0.20 percentage points, while the proportions of RMB loans (down 0.12 percentage points), bills (down 0.04 percentage points), and entrusted loans (down 0.02 percentage points) decreased.

• In February, M2 grew by 9.0% year-on-year, the same as in January; M1 grew by 5.9%, up 1.0 percentage point from January; M0 grew by 14.1%, up 11.4 percentage points from January. The current deposit (M1-M0) decreased by 2.48% month-on-month, while fixed deposits (M2-M1) increased by 1.78%. The central bank net injected 779.5 billion yuan into the market in February.

• Household deposits were a bright spot. In February, new deposits totaled 1.17 trillion yuan, a decrease of 32.5 billion yuan compared to the same period last year; the main increases were in household deposits of 3.11 trillion yuan and non-bank deposits of 1.39 trillion yuan, with household deposits increasing by 2.50 trillion yuan and non-bank deposits decreasing by 1.44 trillion yuan year-on-year. Corporate deposits decreased by 265 billion yuan, 17.6 billion yuan less than last year; fiscal deposits decreased by 350 billion yuan, 161 billion yuan less than last year. Due to the offsetting effects of the Spring Festival holiday, deposit data in the first two months of 2026 fluctuated significantly. Overall, non-bank deposits increased substantially compared to last year, and corporate deposits improved noticeably. We believe the former mainly reflects the trend of residents moving deposits, while the latter is influenced by increased financing and government transfers, jointly driving the slight outperformance of M2’s year-on-year growth rate.

• Corporate loans increased significantly. In February, financial institutions added 900 billion yuan in new loans, including 95.7 billion yuan in short-term loans and bills, and 708.5 billion yuan in medium- and long-term loans. Household loans decreased by 65.07 billion yuan, and new corporate loans reached 1.49 trillion yuan. Overall, February saw strong growth in new corporate loans, with medium- and long-term loans significantly higher than short-term loans, while household loans remained weak—short-term household loans decreased by 19.52 billion yuan, and medium- and long-term household loans decreased by 665 million yuan compared to last year, which may impact retail sales growth and real estate transaction data.

• The monetary policy tools in 2026 will not only include RRR cuts and interest rate reductions. The 2026 government work report states the continuation of a moderately easing monetary policy, emphasizing the importance of stabilizing economic growth and reasonable price increases. The goal remains to maintain ample liquidity, aligning social financing scale and money supply growth with economic growth and inflation expectations. Notably, the report mentions “flexibly and efficiently using various policy tools such as RRR cuts and interest rate reductions,” “optimizing and innovating structural monetary policy tools, appropriately increasing scale, and improving implementation methods,” “smoothing the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, fully leveraging intangible assets like data elements and intellectual property,” and “reducing financing intermediary costs to promote low overall social financing costs.” We believe there is still room for RRR cuts and interest rate reductions in 2026, but given the current low reserve requirement ratio and interest rates, space for further cuts is limited. Structural monetary policy tools may play a larger role in “quantity,” while “price” aspects include lowering intermediary costs and supporting targeted loan interest subsidies. Additionally, two factors warrant attention: first, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is highly uncertain, and if the impact on energy, shipping, chemicals, and supply chains persists, it could influence RMB asset prices and deposit migration trends; second, the production and investment sectors will resume work in March, so monitoring the impact of resumption on corporate financing demand is recommended.

Risk warning: Global inflation may rise again; the pace of economic slowdown in Europe and America may accelerate; international geopolitical situations may become more complex.

Risk warning: Global inflation may rise again; the pace of economic slowdown in Europe and America may accelerate; international geopolitical situations may become more complex.

Securities Analysts: Zhang Xiaojiao

Securities Investment Advisory License No.: S1300514010002

Securities Analysts: Zhu Qibing

Securities Investment Advisory License No.: S1300516090001

Market risks, invest cautiously

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