Sentiment index tomorrow double stabilize expectations ~ if you missed today's live stream, just see how the market responds tomorrow ~~

Index Dimension [Taogu Ba]

The market retreated to the 4050 support level during the session today, then stabilized and rebounded. The lowest point touched 4048, and it finally closed at 4084, forming a bottoming and rebound K-line.

In terms of liquidity, a total of 23,253 billion yuan was released today, a decrease of 750 billion yuan compared to last Friday, maintaining a overall shrinking liquidity pattern. From the intraday volume structure: during the early decline, volume increased, continuing the inertia of active short-selling from last Friday; when the index retreated near 4050, volume clearly decreased, indicating that funds support at this level is recognized, and selling pressure here has weakened significantly. However, the key issue is that during the rebound and rally phase, there was no obvious increase in volume, suggesting that active bottom-fishing outside the market is not enthusiastic. Nonetheless, the synchronized rise with the index indicates a certain offensive attitude from funds towards the tech sector. But sincerity still needs further observation, which can also be understood as a passive repair after the decline exhaustion.

Today, the index again formed a bottoming pattern, directly comparable to the movements on March 4 and March 9: after similar bottoming and stabilization, both times the next day saw a broad rally and recovery. Although the market is currently in a weak oscillation cycle, a weak recovery is a reasonable phenomenon, and a rebound tomorrow is an expected normal.

Therefore, tomorrow’s focus is on whether the recovery strength meets expectations:

• Outperforming expectations: recovery significantly stronger than on 3.4 and 3.9, with themes and indices strengthening together, and volume expanding simultaneously;
• Below expectations: continued divergence and no recovery during the day, or even further weakening, which warrants caution as the market and sentiment may further deteriorate.

Emotion Dimension

Overall market sentiment remains weak today. Although there were sporadic recovery actions during the session, the strength was clearly insufficient, indicating a weak recovery pattern.

As the core target of this round of sentiment, Yunnan Energy Holdings experienced two consecutive limit-downs, directly dragging down high-level sentiment. Its performance was far below expectations and became a key factor suppressing market mood. In the afternoon, only the tech sector led the rally, indicating an independent stabilization of the index, but sentiment did not follow suit, breaking the previous pattern where sentiment was stronger than the index.

After continuous declines, the market index has stabilized in advance. Based on the current rhythm, a sentiment recovery tomorrow is a reasonable expectation. The focus should be on three key signals to judge the strength of the recovery:

• Performance of high-level core stocks: Although Yunnan Energy Holdings is not expected to rebound strongly, whether it can turn red (positive) is crucial, as the strength of the rebound directly determines the intensity of high-level sentiment warming;
• Continuity of recovery leaders: Today’s active leaders like Shun Na and Jin Kai, which led the recovery, whether they can continue their strength and consolidate the recovery tomorrow, is an important proof of sentiment warming;
• Overall recovery strength: If the above targets do not meet expectations collectively, caution is needed as sentiment may weaken further.

Regarding short-term continuous limit-up stocks, the current space is severely constrained, and the tier of continuous limit-ups is shrinking. In this weak oscillation sentiment cycle, the cost-effectiveness and risk-reward ratio of chasing continuous limit-ups are low. It is advisable to temporarily slow down the layout of such stocks and focus on core targets with recovery opportunities.