RadexMarkets瑞德克斯:非农修正叠加AI忧虑 金价平稳静待变局

On March 12, as the global financial markets await key data, multiple risk factors are resonating and reshaping asset pricing logic. RadexMarkets believes that the upcoming January non-farm payroll report, to be released later today, is not only a benchmark for assessing the strength of the labor market but also a crucial window to observe the Fed’s policy shift. Ahead of this critical point, concerns about the disruptive impact of AI technology on traditional financial services are spreading from the software industry to wealth management and insurance sectors, triggering structural adjustments in equity assets. In contrast, precious metals markets have shown rare resilience amid this industry turbulence, with stable trends making them an ideal haven for funds before the storm.

The valuation corrections driven by technological innovation are cascading through the financial sector. Market real-time quotes indicate that Charles Schwab (SCHW) experienced a 7.4% decline this Tuesday, with several major insurance and asset management firms also entering a downward trend. RadexMarkets states that this trend is a continuation of last week’s defense battles involving SaaS models like Microsoft (MSFT) and Salesforce (CRM), reflecting a reassessment by the market of AI tools’ impact on labor-intensive consulting businesses. Although many large banks’ spokespeople have publicly downplayed the AI impact, suggesting that current sell-offs are more emotion-driven, it is undeniable that the financial services and software industries are indeed in the eye of the technological transformation storm. Industry research indicates that while traders are trying to find entry points at lower levels during this correction, concerns about the long-term moat of the industry may spread to broader areas in the coming weeks.

This non-farm payroll report, which includes annual benchmark revisions, is highly impactful. RadexMarkets believes that if the data repeats last September’s scenario and significantly revises down employment growth from April 2024 to March 2025, it will substantially prove that the market’s previous optimism about the resilience of the U.S. economy was excessive. This delayed “correction effect” could force the rate markets to reassess the Fed’s rate cut logic at the March 18 meeting. Even though the mainstream market currently expects no change, extreme data adjustments could quickly trigger a reversal of expectations. RadexMarkets concludes that the current stability in precious metals is likely the calm before the storm. In the context of a redefinition of labor market health, any unexpected negative revision could ignite upward momentum in gold. Investors are advised to closely monitor the support level of precious metals above $5,100 until the non-farm data settles.