Trump Faces the "Impossible Trinity"

According to Xinhua News Agency, on the 17th, U.S. National Counterterrorism Center Director Joe Kent announced his resignation, stating in an open letter to President Donald Trump that Iran does not pose an “imminent threat” to the United States. He said the war was launched under Israel’s “pressure” and that he could not “conscienciously support the war.” This is the first senior official appointed by Trump to resign over opposition to military strikes against Iran, exposing divisions within the Trump administration regarding the decision to go to war with Iran. (Previous report: U.S. official resigns: hopes Trump reflects)

Joe Kent (photo)

Recently, Trump has repeatedly expressed conflicting views on the targets, scale, and duration of military actions against Iran, reflecting his attempt to appease the hawks while also calming the doves, and balancing the demands of his core voter base of “Make America Great Again” (MAGA). However, this difficulty in satisfying all sides has put him in a dilemma similar to the “impossible triangle” in financial policy.

Statements “Jumping Back and Forth”

Looking back at Trump’s recent statements on the prospects of military action against Iran, his remarks have fluctuated between “victory” and “no victory,” “ceasefire” and “continuation of the fight.” On the 15th, he claimed the U.S. had “basically defeated Iran,” with “astonishing” military results, but denied being ready to declare victory. On the 16th, he said “the conflict will not end this week,” but “it won’t be long.” On the 17th, he stated that the U.S. is not yet ready to leave Iran but will “withdraw soon,” and that he is not worried about Iran becoming “another Vietnam.”

On one hand, he loudly proclaims “basically defeated” Iran; on the other, he cannot declare victory. He hints that the fighting will not end immediately, yet promises it will end soon. Analysts point out that Trump’s contradictory statements are not accidental.

U.S. President Donald Trump (photo)

Analyst David Smith from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute said that Trump’s remarks are not an accurate description of the war situation but are motivated by political considerations.

Researcher Clay Ramsay from the University of Maryland’s Center for International and Security Studies said that these inconsistent statements are aimed at different groups. Facing the hawks, Trump says the U.S. will not end military operations immediately; worried about economic trends and midterm elections, he claims the conflict won’t last long and the Strait of Hormuz will reopen soon; and for the MAGA camp, he directly states that the U.S. has “won.”

The “Impossible Triangle”

The three groups Ramsay mentioned are the key forces influencing White House decisions—they all want the U.S. military action against Iran to proceed according to their own demands.

U.S. Senator Tom Cotton (photo)

In the eyes of U.S. media and analysts, the current hawk representatives include Republican Senators Lindsey Graham and Tom Cotton. They support initiating military action against Iran alongside Israel, advocating to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, and demanding Trump completely destroy Iran’s military capabilities or even overthrow the current regime. Additionally, pro-Israel lobbying groups and the military-industrial complex are also part of the hawkish forces.

Many senior White House officials and business leaders favor ending the war. This group includes senior officials and advisors from the Treasury Department and the National Economic Council, as well as White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles. According to Reuters, these individuals have warned Trump that soaring oil prices caused by the conflict could lead to political consequences unfavorable to the Republican Party. Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi and other economists have pointed out that the risk of the U.S. economy slipping into recession is increasing due to the war.

Furthermore, current polls show that most MAGA voters support Trump’s decision to use force against Iran but do not want U.S. ground troops deployed or to be mired in a prolonged Middle East war. They prefer the U.S. to pursue “peace through strength” and to “exit with dignity” after a quick victory.

Trump’s previous contradictory statements aim to “appease” these three factions simultaneously. A White House official told Reuters that the president is trying to “make the hawks believe military action is ongoing, make the markets believe the war will end soon, and make his base believe the situation will only escalate within manageable limits.” However, analysts argue that Trump cannot truly satisfy all three sides at once, trapping him in an “impossible triangle.”

The “Strange Split” in the MAGA Camp

Recent polls show that a significant portion of MAGA voters still support Trump’s military action against Iran. However, several core MAGA opinion leaders have publicly opposed it, including former Chief Strategist Steve Bannon, conservative political commentator Tucker Carlson, and media personality Megyn Kelly. The MAGA camp is showing a “strange split” where opinion leaders oppose, but grassroots supporters favor, the military action.

Tucker Carlson (photo)

Carlson claims that the Trump administration’s decision to use force against Iran is the result of long-term Israeli planning. Kelly said that going to war with Iran does not serve American interests, and “no American should be willing to die for another country’s conflict.”

Additionally, within the MAGA camp, potential political successors seem to be distancing themselves from the hawks. Vice President Vance has refused to comment on whether he was involved in the decision-making for military action against Iran; former Republican Congressman Marjorie Taylor Greene has publicly criticized Trump’s promises of “no more foreign wars” and “no regime change,” calling them “lies.” Media reports suggest both are eyeing the 2028 presidential race and are maintaining distance from the hawkish faction.

Vice President Vance (photo)

Analysts believe that ordinary MAGA voters’ support for striking Iran is based on personal loyalty to Trump and the expectation of a quick, decisive victory. If the conflict drags on and economic costs rise, anti-war sentiments within the MAGA camp could quickly resurface.

Darryl West, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said that Trump has broken his campaign promises to the MAGA base and has failed to provide consistent reasons for the war, creating a huge political dilemma for himself. “The longer the war lasts, the more difficult it becomes for him.”

Source: Xinhua News Agency