Just now, a spokesman for Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps was assassinated! The Strait of Hormuz suddenly faces unexpected developments!

After the Strait of Hormuz, another major shipping route is changing!

On March 20, news reports that Yemen’s Houthi forces claim they may block the Strait of Mandeb to support Iran. The Strait of Mandeb connects the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden and is known as the “water corridor” linking Europe, Asia, and Africa.

Additionally, a refinery operated by Kuwait National Petroleum Company was attacked by drones early on the 20th, causing some facilities to catch fire. This is the second consecutive day that the Ahmadi Port refinery has been targeted by drone attacks.

Stimulated by these events, international oil prices surged sharply, with Brent crude briefly turning positive after previously falling more than 3%.

Regarding the latest Iran situation, according to CCTV News, on March 20 local time, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced that IRGC spokesperson Naeini was killed during the U.S.-Israeli military operation early that day.

On the same day, the IRGC declared that Iran’s military is on high alert and eager to deliver a “heavy blow” to U.S. warships in combat.

According to foreign media reports, the U.S. is accelerating the deployment of thousands of Marines and sailors to the Middle East.

Yemen’s Houthi forces: Possibly blocking the Strait of Mandeb

According to Xinhua News Agency citing RIA Novosti on March 20, Houthi political bureau member Muhammad Al-Buhaiti said that to support Iran, the organization might block the Strait of Mandeb.

Buhaiti told RIA Novosti that the Houthis are considering all options to support Iran in resisting U.S. and Israeli military strikes. If they must close the strait, the Houthis will only attack ships involved in attacks on Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, and Palestine.

The Strait of Mandeb connects the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden and is a vital “throat” linking the Atlantic, Mediterranean, and Indian Oceans, often called the “water corridor” connecting Eurasia and Africa.

Earlier, on the evening of March 5, Houthi leader Abdul Malik Houthi stated that the organization “fully supports” Iran and is prepared to act if needed. He said Israel and other countries are recklessly infringing, trying to expand the war without limits, and “our finger is always on the trigger,” ready to act if the situation demands.

On March 19, NBC pointed out that the Red Sea could become the next critical choke point for the global economy. According to the International Energy Agency, after Iran responded to U.S.-Israeli attacks by effectively blocking the Strait of Hormuz, global shipping and oil markets have been thrown into chaos, causing the most severe disruptions in oil market history.

To limit losses, Saudi Arabia increased the capacity of its east-west pipelines, which connect the Arabian Peninsula to the Red Sea, while the UAE increased throughput on its Habbashan-Fujairah pipeline to the Gulf of Oman. David Batten, a researcher at the Chatham House think tank in London, wrote in an analysis this week: “However, even if these routes are operating at full capacity, they can only transport about a quarter of the oil usually passing through the Strait of Hormuz.”

Batten added, “And they are vulnerable to attacks by Iran and the Houthis. The Yemen organization has not yet entered the conflict, but if it does, it could disrupt Saudi exports.”

Historically, the Red Sea has immense strategic value, with about one-tenth of the world’s oil shipped through the Strait of Mandeb—a narrow bottleneck only 16 miles wide, separating the Arabian Peninsula from the Horn of Africa. However, this changed at the end of 2023 when the Houthis began attacking ships using this route in response to Israeli strikes on Gaza.

According to the UN Conference on Trade and Development’s annual review, by mid-2024, shipping through the Red Sea has plummeted, with traffic through the Suez Canal connecting to the Mediterranean decreasing by 70%. Meanwhile, the U.S. Energy Information Administration noted in an analysis that oil flows through the Strait of Mandeb have halved.

Although the Houthis have not yet resumed missile attacks, another maritime intelligence firm, Windward, reported this Monday that threats of attacks have emerged alongside a “sharp decrease” in traffic through the Strait of Mandeb.

Ahmed Soliman, a senior researcher at Chatham House specializing in the Horn of Africa, said: “The Red Sea corridor is a nexus for Africa, the Gulf region, Asia, and major global powers. Any escalation in this area will cause significant instability in shipping.”

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) statement

According to Xinhua citing Fars News Agency on March 20, the IRGC spokesperson said that Iran’s missile industry “will score full marks” and “there are no worries in this regard.”

The spokesperson stated, “Even in wartime, we are producing missiles, which is astonishing, and we have no particular issues with reserves.”

Additionally, CCTV News cited Iranian sources saying that the IRGC issued a statement claiming that the U.S. Navy’s USS Ford aircraft carrier, despite widespread Western media attention, was dispatched to the West Asian region but failed to support U.S. forces there and instead withdrew from the battlefield, reflecting the “desperate and humiliating” situation of the U.S. and Israel.

On March 17, U.S. sources reported that the USS Ford, involved in large-scale military operations against Iran alongside Israel, was preparing to leave the Red Sea for a U.S. Navy base in Greece for repairs after a fire occurred last week.

On March 20, the IRGC announced that Iran’s military remains on high alert, eager to deliver a “heavy blow” to U.S. warships in combat.

In response to U.S. claims that it destroyed the Iranian Navy, the IRGC called this a lie and asked, “If the U.S. is so confident, why doesn’t it dare to order the aircraft carrier into the Gulf of Oman and the Red Sea?”

On March 19, U.S. officials cited sources saying that the U.S. is accelerating the deployment of thousands of Marines and sailors to the Middle East.

Sources said that at least 2,200 Marines from the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit are expected to depart San Diego in the coming days aboard the amphibious assault ship USS Makin Island. It is also expected that at least one other ship will accompany them, meaning thousands of sailors will be deployed earlier than planned.

Proofread: Wang Wei