Financial Times UK: Rising Gasoline Prices Test American Voters' Patience

As the Middle East situation worsens, the U.S. government has failed to curb soaring fuel prices.

Donald Trump’s war against Iran has caused U.S. gasoline prices to spike to levels that worry drivers, putting additional pressure on the president to defend a conflict that could trigger a new round of inflation for Americans.

According to the American Automobile Association (AAA), gasoline prices rose to $3.58 per gallon on Wednesday, a 20% increase since the start of the war. Current prices are at their highest levels during his two terms in office.

The increase of over $3.50 provides voters already concerned about the affordability of Trump’s economy with another prominent inflation indicator—visible on roads across the country.

“Americans fill up about 50 times a year. That means 50 chances to regret their last vote,” said Kevin Book, research director at ClearView Energy Partners.

Gasoline retail prices have risen for 11 consecutive days, and analysts expect prices to continue climbing as crude oil (the raw material for gasoline) remains high due to Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint for one-fifth of the world’s oil supply.

Since Trump launched the war, the Trump administration has tried to quell the rise in oil prices by offering to insure tankers passing through the strait or deploying U.S. Navy escort ships to protect them from attacks.

However, Western countries’ decision on Wednesday to release record amounts of stored oil, along with Trump’s announcement of releasing a “small amount” of U.S. reserves, failed to prevent further price increases.

Since the U.S. and Israel launched their first strikes on Tehran late last month, the benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude oil price has risen by more than a third. On Wednesday, it closed at $87.25 per barrel, up 4.6%.

Later on Wednesday, Energy Secretary Chris Wray confirmed that as part of international efforts, the U.S. will release 172 million barrels of oil from its reserves.

Gasoline prices rose to $3.58 per gallon on Wednesday © Reuters

The sharp rise in gas prices at U.S. gas stations has intensified voter dissatisfaction.

“I don’t understand why we’re involved in Iran,” said Alyssa Reese, at a Shell station in Green Mountain, Nashville, where gasoline was priced at $3.40 per gallon. She also noted recent price hikes when buying airline tickets.

A recent Ipsos poll shows about two-thirds of Americans expect gasoline prices to rise over the next year. About half of respondents said they expect the war to negatively impact their personal finances.

Nashville retiree Jesse Brown said he believes the increase in oil prices should be blamed on energy companies, not politicians. “Biden can’t control oil prices, and neither can Trump,” he said. “Price gouging used to be illegal. I don’t know how that rule has changed now.”

On Wednesday, Trump traveled to nearby Kentucky to boast about his economic achievements. He said his administration is “working to keep oil supplies steady.”

“Oil prices have already started to come down, and they will continue to decline, but we won’t leave until the job is done,” he told a group of supporters.

Recently, the president insisted that rising oil prices are just a “short-term phenomenon” and that “once the threat from Iran is eliminated, oil prices will quickly fall back.” On Sunday, Trump posted on social media that high oil prices are “a small price to pay for America, the world, and security and peace.”

White House spokesperson Taylor Rojas stated in a release, “President Trump has made it clear that these are short-term disruptions.”

Oil prices are unlikely to return to normal in the near term.

During Joe Biden’s presidency, the outbreak of the Ukraine war caused U.S. gasoline prices to spike to over $5 per gallon at one point, but they fell back to about $2.80 by the time he left office. Despite recent increases, U.S. gasoline prices are still roughly half of those in many European countries, including the UK.

The U.S. Department of Energy predicts this week that gasoline prices will not return to pre-conflict levels before the end of 2027.

Capital Economics analysts estimate that if crude oil prices stay near current levels, consumer inflation in March could jump to 2.9%, up from 2.4% in February.