Live Hog Futures Main Contract Hits New Low, Spot Price Down 30.6% Year-over-Year

China Securities Journal Reporter Zhao Liyun

On March 19, the domestic futures market for live pigs saw another decline. By the close of trading, the main live pig futures contract, 2605, was at 10,335 yuan per ton, with a intraday low of 10,250 yuan per ton, hitting a new low since listing.

Live pig spot prices down 30.6% year-on-year

In the spot market, according to SouPig.com data, on March 18, the average price for lean pigs nationwide was 10.07 yuan per kilogram, up 0.03 yuan from the previous day’s 10.04 yuan, a daily increase of 0.3%. Compared to the same period last year, at 14.51 yuan per kilogram, it has fallen by 4.44 yuan, a year-on-year decline of 30.6%.

Shanghai Ganglian Data shows that since 2026, live pig prices have generally experienced an initial rise followed by a decline, continuing to hit new lows. In early to mid-January, prices briefly surged to 13.15 yuan per kilogram. After the Spring Festival, due to oversupply and weak demand, prices plummeted sharply. By mid to late March, the average price of external three-way crossbred pigs nationwide had fallen below 10 yuan per kilogram, reaching the lowest point since 2019, with a cumulative decline of over 24% this year, leading to deep industry losses.

Against this backdrop, industry sources reported that on the 19th, relevant departments held a meeting, requiring several pig enterprises to report their annual production targets and, based on the completion of reducing the breeding sow inventory, to cut their annual slaughter volume.

“Based on data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and Zhuochuang Information on breeding sows, it is expected that pig prices will start to rise in the second half of 2026. However, from a policy perspective, capacity is still expected to be further regulated, and breeding farms may adjust the breeding rate of sows to control pig output, thereby reducing enterprise losses,” said Zou Yingji, pig analyst at Zhuochuang Information.

Herd size at historic high

Zou Yingji stated that over the past five years, the trend of pig prices has experienced two small cycles. The impact of pig diseases on the market has gradually weakened, and profit-driven capacity changes have caused price fluctuations, with the amplitude narrowing. Prices are currently in a state of oscillating decline. Due to capacity release, the industry’s breeding scale is at a historic high. The low pig prices are mainly due to the previous high levels of breeding sows, which correspond to high slaughter volumes now. March is also a low-demand season following the Spring Festival, further pushing pig prices to new lows.

Yuan Chunlan, analyst at Shanghai Ganglian, said that the current domestic pig market is characterized by oversupply, with the industry under significant supply pressure. From a capacity standpoint, the number of breeding sows remains above regulatory targets. Coupled with continuous improvements in breeding efficiency, the industry’s overall supply capacity remains high, supporting current and future pig slaughter volumes.

Mysteel data shows that in key provinces, large-scale breeding enterprises plan to increase pig slaughter by 17.63% month-on-month in March, with a clear acceleration in slaughter pace. Additionally, the stock of large pigs from previous farms remains high, with heavy-weight pigs continuing to be sold off, further increasing market supply. In the short term, pig prices still face strong supply pressure.

Ongoing losses in breeding enterprises

Since late January this year, pig breeding has been in continuous loss. Data from Zhuochuang Information indicates that in mid-March, the average loss per pig was about 225 yuan.

“Losses in breeding do not necessarily mean pig prices have bottomed out, but current prices are already relatively low, and further price drops are unlikely to boost demand. Even with moderate market sales, breeders are reluctant to lower prices. On March 17, the nationwide average price for lean pigs monitored by Zhuochuang was 10.08 yuan per kilogram, leaving little room for further decline,” said Zou Yingji.

Regarding the overall price trend for pigs this year, Shanghai Ganglian analyst Qu Guona predicts that pig prices will likely follow a pattern of initially low, then rising, with oscillations. Since the first half of the year is still a capacity release period combined with weak demand, prices will remain low and industry losses will deepen. After the third quarter, if capacity reduction becomes evident and demand gradually recovers, prices are expected to stabilize and rise. In the fourth quarter, seasonal factors will support a stronger trend, helping to recover previous losses and further increase prices.

Cinda Futures’ latest analysis suggests that it will take a longer time for pig prices to bottom out. Data shows that at the end of January 2026, the national breeding sow inventory was 39.58 million, a slight month-on-month decrease. The pace of sow capacity reduction is significantly slower than in 2021 and 2023. Additionally, the number of piglets born in sample enterprises at the end of January was 5.7804 million, still increasing month-on-month, indicating ongoing supply-side uncertainties in the second half of 2026.