Oil prices are about to adjust! May return to the "9 yuan era"

How does the Middle East geopolitical situation drive up international crude oil prices?

According to the schedule for refined oil price adjustments, at 24:00 on March 23 (next Monday), China’s retail limit prices for refined oil will undergo a new round of adjustments.

Latest predictions tracked by institutions show that the current increase in retail limit prices for refined oil will far exceed the red line adjustment threshold of 50 yuan/ton. It is highly likely that retail prices for refined oil will be raised this round. Calculations suggest that the price of domestic 92-octane gasoline may fully enter the “9-yuan era.”

Refined Oil Retail Limit Prices May Increase

Since the current pricing cycle began, international crude oil prices have risen sharply. As a result, the domestic reference change rate for crude oil has continued to expand within positive values.

Meng Peng, an analyst at Zhuochuang Information for refined oil, stated that recently, tensions in the Middle East have persisted, and concerns about reduced crude oil supply have continued to intensify, pushing international crude oil prices to remain relatively strong within high ranges. Influenced by this, since the start of this pricing cycle, the average international crude oil price has surged compared to the previous cycle, with the reference change rate starting at a high positive level and then generally trending upward.

Zhuochuang’s monitoring model shows that as of the close on March 19, the ninth working day of this pricing cycle, the reference crude oil change rate was 45.21%. Based on this calculation, the corresponding increase in domestic retail prices for refined oil would be about 2,000 yuan/ton.

Meng Peng said that with only one working day left before this round of price adjustment window opens, the short-term change rate for crude oil may continue to rise. The final increase in domestic retail prices could reach around 2,200 yuan/ton. Based on this, the price per liter for 92-octane, 95-octane gasoline, and No. 0 diesel would each increase by approximately 1.73 yuan, 1.83 yuan, and 1.87 yuan, respectively. If retail limit prices for refined oil are adjusted accordingly, the price of 92-octane gasoline in China will fully enter the “9-yuan era.” At that time, private car owners will spend an additional 86.5 yuan to fill a 50L tank of 92-octane gasoline.

Longzhong Information analyst Liu Ting also stated that there is no longer any doubt that retail limit prices for refined oil in China will rise this round. According to the domestic refined oil pricing mechanism, the increase for this cycle is about 2,000 yuan/ton. If implemented, this would mark the fifth consecutive increase and set a new record for the largest price hike this year.

Since 2026, China has experienced five adjustment windows for retail refined oil prices, including four increases and one pause. The prices of gasoline and diesel have increased by 1,160 yuan/ton and 1,120 yuan/ton respectively since the end of 2025.

Significant Rise in Wholesale Prices for Gasoline and Diesel

Since the start of this pricing cycle, wholesale prices in the refined oil market have risen sharply. Data monitored by Longzhong shows that as of March 19, the average market price for 92-octane gasoline was 9,479 yuan/ton, up 14.8% from the previous adjustment cycle; the average price for diesel was 7,977 yuan/ton, up 15.9%.

Liu Ting said that ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, and supply gaps in the international crude oil market have caused prices to continue rising, with Brent crude futures surpassing $100 per barrel. Additionally, concerns about domestic crude oil supply shortages persist, leading large state-owned enterprises to focus on domestic retail sales, which has significantly driven up wholesale refined oil prices.

Looking ahead, Meng Peng stated that in the short term, under the influence of geopolitical disturbances, international crude oil prices are likely to remain high.

Liu Ting also noted that tensions in the Middle East remain intense, the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, and supply risks in the crude oil market continue to worry investors. Therefore, international crude oil prices may stay elevated in the near future.

Source: China Securities Journal