#创作者冲榜 Gold Plummets $525 in Single Week, Silver Crashes Nearly 16%, Larger Decline May Be Coming

As Middle East tensions persist and energy prices remain elevated, markets are increasingly concerned about inflationary pressures resurging, potentially forcing major global central banks to pause easing and adopt a longer-term wait-and-see approach.

Consequently, gold has faced continued headwinds recently. After breaking below the 50-day moving average—a key technical level—bearish sentiment has intensified further. Multiple analysts warn that if Middle East conflicts drag on and energy infrastructure sustains additional damage, gold may face further pain in the near term, with risks of potentially falling to the lower end of the $4,000 range.

Gold Price Crashes $525, Breaks Key Technical Level, Silver Plunges Nearly 16%

As the Middle East conflict shows no signs of ending, some analysts caution that gold investors should prepare for further market declines. The reason: sustained energy price increases are reigniting inflationary threats, which may force major global central banks to abandon their accommodative paths and adopt a "wait-and-see" policy stance instead.

Gold markets experienced significant technical breakdown this week. As gold prices fell below the 50-day moving average, slightly below $5,000/ounce, the market's chart structure has clearly deteriorated. Kelvin Wong, senior market analyst at OANDA, told Kitco News that Wednesday's breakdown and subsequent sustained selling have brought gold markets to a critical turning point.

He notes that from a price structure perspective, gold's 23% rally from the February 2, 2026 low of $4,402 to the March 2 high of $5,420 now appears more like a "corrective rebound," or even a classic "dead cat bounce."

This suggests gold's next phase is more likely to see a sustained multi-week downtrend. On a weekly basis, gold fell $525.56 this week, a 10.47% decline, marking the largest single-week drop since 1983. Since the conflict began, gold has fallen over 14% cumulatively. Recent market data shows gold briefly broke below $4,500, while the year-to-date high reached above $5,600.

By contrast, silver's decline has been even more dramatic. Silver prices are set to drop 15.67% this week, marking the largest decline since January's peak reversal. Spot silver is quoted at $67.889/ounce, down 6.74% intraday!

Middle East Situation and Strait of Hormuz Become Key Variables for Gold's Next Move

Analysts widely believe gold's near-term direction will almost entirely depend on how Middle East tensions evolve and whether the Strait of Hormuz can return to normal operations, thereby easing global supply chain and energy price pressures.

Precious metals analyst Bernard Dahdah stated in his latest report that while markets await further clarity on Iran conflict developments, he expects gold prices may fluctuate between $4,600-$4,700 in the near term, but also warns that downside risks are increasing. He notes that if energy assets suffer further damage and conflict extends, the ultimate outcome could be gold falling toward the lower end of the $4,000/ounce range. The reason: under such scenarios, even the Federal Reserve might be forced to re-tighten due to persistently elevated energy prices.

However, he emphasizes this doesn't necessarily mean gold's long-term trend will permanently weaken. If energy infrastructure damage is limited and oil prices can quickly return to pre-war levels, global central banks' buying interest in gold may rekindle, potentially pushing gold back above $5,000 for longer-term trading ranges.

Why Isn't Gold Acting Like a Safe Haven Amid War?

Despite gold's recent headwinds, multiple analysts remain optimistic about its medium-to-long-term prospects. Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy, noted that investors' core logic for buying gold at year-start hasn't actually changed, as the global economy still faces unprecedented uncertainty, while geopolitical turmoil and government debt expansion issues remain unresolved.

However, he also points out that current markets need to first experience a round of sentiment and position correction. In other words, investors need to "sober up from infatuation," after which they may rekindle enthusiasm for gold. For those still bullish on gold, they need to see evidence that the worst is behind before gaining more confidence to re-enter. Analysts believe the main reason gold hasn't displayed traditional safe-haven strength in this conflict is the reinflation threat posed by rising energy prices.

The market's current trading focus is no longer just the geopolitical conflict itself, but rather how that conflict transmits through oil prices to inflation, interest rates, and monetary policy paths.

Central Banks in Full Wait-and-See Mode, Yet Markets Already Rapidly Withdrawn Rate-Cut Bets!

Over the past week, major global central banks have almost universally maintained rates and collectively entered a relatively neutral "wait-and-see mode" to observe how conflict will ultimately impact inflation expectations. Haworth points out that the next four to six weeks will be a crucial observation window for central banks, especially as companies begin adjusting budget expectations ahead of summer, policymakers will gain clearer insight into whether energy shocks materially impact business decisions and pricing behavior.

However, markets clearly lack such patience. Investors have already begun rapidly withdrawing bets on Fed rate cuts this year. Thu Lan Nguyen, head of forex and commodities research at Commerzbank, stated that in the US, not even a single complete rate cut through year-end has been adequately priced in. Back in late February, markets widely expected the Fed to cut rates 2.5 times. She notes that following recent Fed meetings, rate-cut expectations have been further weakened, mainly because Fed Chair Powell repeatedly emphasized inflation risks and explicitly stated that if future signals suggest inflation cannot return to target levels in the medium term, further monetary easing will be off the table.

Against this backdrop, as long as energy prices continue rising and elevate long-term inflation expectations, gold prices will likely remain under sustained downward pressure.

Gold's Long-Term Bull Market Might Not End, But Near-Term Needs "Consolidation Confirmation"

Though a Fed hawkish shift typically pressures gold by pushing bond yields and the dollar higher, some analysts believe gold's long-term opportunities haven't disappeared. Senior market analyst Michael Brown suggests that if central banks become overly focused on inflation and continue tightening despite economic recession, this itself could constitute a serious policy error. He notes that monetary policy's effectiveness against supply-driven inflation is inherently limited; central banks often can only slow growth by dampening demand.

Therefore, given ongoing uncertainty about the Iran conflict's duration and economic impact, central banks' "wait-and-see" strategy is actually the most logical approach. However, if major central banks ultimately commit the policy error of "tightening in recession," gold could still perform well over longer horizons, as investors would then seek tools to hedge economic downside risks again.

Brown states he doesn't believe the gold bull market has ended, but at the current stage, markets more need to first experience a thorough consolidation phase before having stronger reasons to boost confidence in "buying dips."