Today's Consultation

Over the past 24 hours, global markets experienced a rare "broad asset decline": gold recorded its largest weekly drop since 1983, Bitcoin broke below the $70,000 mark, and US stocks continued their weakness. As of this morning, Bitcoin is trading at $69,329, Ethereum at $2,102, and SOL at $88.16. The synchronized decline of gold and Bitcoin has shattered the traditional belief that "geopolitical conflicts benefit safe-haven assets," revealing the profound macroeconomic logic restructuring that the current market is experiencing.

01. Deep Analysis of Core Events
· Gold recorded its largest weekly decline since March 1983, with domestic precious metal jewelry prices adjusting downward in sync.
· Global central banks' policies are collectively hawkish, with market rate-cut expectations narrowing significantly, and the probability of no rate cuts rising to 56.1%.
· Strait of Hormuz blockade pushes oil prices higher, bringing sustained inflation pressure, as markets face oil-driven stagflation shock.
· Panic sentiment spreads, crypto markets enter extreme fear zone, widespread liquidations occur across the network, and markets are broadly de-risking.

02. Reasons for Gold's Crash
· Gold's safe-haven attributes are conditional, hedging only against credit collapse, not against liquidity tightening risks.
· Current market expectations of hawkish global central bank policies have exceeded the support from geopolitical safe-haven demand.
· Previous crowded gold speculation positions, combined with liquidity panic, triggered passive selling.

03. Reasons for Bitcoin's Synchronized Decline
Bitcoin is currently still classified by markets as a risk asset that, under rate-hike expectations, faces valuation pressure on the denominator side. This synchronized decline confirms that markets are experiencing broad de-risking, with capital preferring to hold cash in the current environment.

04. Transmission Chain of This Morning's Crash
Yesterday night through this morning's decline started with Brent crude breaking through $110, with surging oil prices further reinforcing market inflation expectations, gradually transmitting and driving synchronized declines across asset classes.

Summary: "Cash is King" Under Macroeconomic Logic Restructuring

Gold records its largest weekly drop in 43 years, Bitcoin breaks below $70,000—these two events happening in the same week are no coincidence. The core logic behind this: global central banks' policy focus is shifting from "supporting growth" to "fighting inflation." When markets begin pricing in "rate hikes" rather than "rate cuts," the valuation logic for all assets undergoes restructuring. Gold's non-yielding nature pressures it, while Bitcoin's risk-asset characteristics cause it to decline in sync.

However, it should be noted that the extreme fear index (10) typically corresponds to a phase-bottom zone. Li Zhao of China International Capital Corporation judges that gold's bull market has not ended; this crash is a deep pullback within the bull market rather than a terminal signal. The same logic may apply to Bitcoin—under the long-term trend of fiat currency credit damage and de-dollarization acceleration, Bitcoin's "digital gold" narrative has not been disproven, merely yielding short-term ground to macroeconomic liquidity logic.

My core judgment is: Bitcoin in the $68,000-$69,000 range corresponds to "macro headwinds + geopolitical risks + extreme panic" triple pricing. Holding above $68,000, markets may see recovery after bottom-building; if effectively broken, the next support is at $66,000. For investors, maintaining clarity amid panic, patience at key support levels, and decisiveness after macroeconomic signals clarify, is the best strategy for navigating this "logic restructuring period."

Disclaimer: The above content is merely market analysis based on publicly available information and does not constitute any investment advice. Digital currency markets are highly volatile; please make rational decisions and manage risks accordingly.