Huang Lichen: Oil price correction alleviates inflation concerns, gold fluctuates around $5,000

On March 17, yesterday Monday, we believe that rising international oil prices have increased inflation concerns, suppressing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, which supports the US dollar and Treasury yields, directly pressuring gold prices. In the short term, technical analysis also shows that after a rebound was met with resistance, there is a continued need for adjustment. Therefore, in terms of operations, we recommend paying attention to the gains or losses of $5,000. If it falls below, the risk of a short-term decline may increase. Support levels below are at $4,900. If it stabilizes within the $5,000 to $5,200 range, the short-term rebound resistance can be watched at $5,060, followed by $5,100.

Looking at the subsequent trend, after the Asian session opened yesterday Monday, gold rebounded to $5,030 but was resisted, then fell back to $4,967 and stabilized. It rebounded again to $5,030 but was resisted, then after the European session opened, gold reached $5,036 but was resisted, falling back to $4,970 and stabilizing. After the US session opened, gold rebounded to $5,037 but was resisted, then fell back to $4,974 and stabilized, closing at $5,005. Overall, Monday’s gold volatility was limited, with prices fluctuating around the $5,000 level, maintaining a pressure and consolidation trend.

Wolfinance star analyst believes that due to the impact of the US-Iran conflict, international oil prices soared, increasing inflation concerns. This may force the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates for a longer period. Investors’ bets on rate cuts have significantly decreased, supporting the US dollar and Treasury yields, which directly pressure gold prices. However, oil prices fell on Monday, dragging down the dollar and Treasury yields, curbing the short-term downward momentum of gold. The US plans to form a convoy alliance, the EU discusses reopening plans, boosting market expectations of the Strait reopening in the short term. The US Treasury Secretary stated that Iranian oil tankers are allowed to pass, Iraq is restoring northern pipeline oil exports, which may replace some of the Strait’s capacity. Market concerns about oil prices eased, leading to a correction in oil prices.

On the daily chart, after last week’s gold rebound was met with resistance and declined, it hit a new low in nearly a month, showing relative weakness in the short term. Support levels for gold can focus on the consolidation around $4,970, where prices repeatedly stabilized, and the lower Bollinger Band near $4,930. Resistance levels above can focus on the consolidation around $5,040, with the next key level at the $5,100 mark. The 5-day moving average and MACD indicator are showing a death cross downward, and KDJ and RSI indicators are also showing downward crosses, indicating that gold still needs to adjust further in the short term.

For intraday reference: Market concerns about oil prices have eased, leading to a correction in oil prices on Monday, which dragged down the dollar and Treasury yields, temporarily curbing gold’s short-term downward momentum. Gold is currently oscillating around the $5,000 level. Operationally, a range-bound approach is recommended. Support levels are at $4,970 and then $4,930; resistance levels are at $5,040 and then $5,100.