Hurry up and fill up! Domestic oil prices will see the biggest increase tomorrow night, possibly approaching the "10 yuan era"

The domestic retail prices of refined oil will undergo their “6th” adjustment in 2026. At 24:00 on March 23 (next Monday), a new round of retail price limit adjustments for refined oil will take effect.

Latest international crude oil price trend predictions tracked by institutions show that the current round of retail price increases will likely exceed the red line adjustment threshold of 50 yuan/ton. Therefore, it is highly probable that retail prices for refined oil will be raised. According to calculations, the price of domestic 92-octane gasoline may fully enter the “9-yuan era.” Based on current increases, some areas could see 95-octane gasoline rise to about 9.8 yuan, approaching the “10-yuan era.”

Refined oil retail prices may be adjusted upward

Since the start of this pricing cycle, international crude oil prices have risen sharply. As a result, the change rate of crude oil prices referenced domestically has continued to expand within positive ranges.

Meng Peng, an analyst at Zhuochuang Information for refined oil, stated that recently, tensions in the Middle East have persisted, and concerns about reduced crude oil supply have intensified, driving international crude oil prices to remain relatively strong within high ranges. Influenced by this, since the start of this pricing cycle, the average international crude oil price has surged compared to the previous cycle, with the reference change rate starting high in positive territory and then generally trending upward.

According to Zhuochuang’s monitoring model, as of the close on March 19, the 9th working day of this pricing cycle, the reference crude oil change rate was 45.21%. Based on this, the corresponding domestic retail price increase would be approximately 2,000 yuan per ton.

Meng Peng added that with only one working day remaining before this round of price adjustment window opens, the short-term change rate of crude oil may continue to rise. The final retail price increase could reach around 2,200 yuan per ton. Based on this calculation, the price per liter for 92-octane gasoline, 95-octane gasoline, and zero diesel would increase by approximately 1.73 yuan, 1.83 yuan, and 1.87 yuan, respectively. If retail prices are adjusted according to this range, domestic 92-octane gasoline will fully enter the “9-yuan era.” At that time, private car owners will spend an additional 86.5 yuan to fill a 50L tank of 92-octane gasoline.

Longzhong Information analyst Liu Ting also stated that there is no longer any doubt about this round of domestic refined oil retail price increases. Based on the domestic refined oil pricing mechanism, the increase for this cycle is about 2,000 yuan per ton. If implemented, this would mean five consecutive increases, also setting a new record for the largest price hike within the year.

Since 2026, there have been five adjustment windows for domestic refined oil retail prices, including four increases and one pause. The prices of gasoline and diesel have risen by 1,160 yuan and 1,120 yuan per ton respectively compared to the end of 2025.

Significant rise in wholesale prices of gasoline and diesel

Since the start of this pricing cycle, wholesale prices in the refined oil market have risen sharply. Data monitored by Longzhong shows that as of March 19, the average market price for 92-octane gasoline was 9,479 yuan/ton, up 14.8% from the previous adjustment cycle; the average price for diesel was 7,977 yuan/ton, up 15.9%.

Liu Ting noted that ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, and supply gaps in the international crude oil market have caused prices to continue rising. Brent crude futures have surpassed $100 per barrel. Additionally, concerns about domestic crude oil supply shortages persist, with state-owned large enterprises focusing on supply security for retail, leading to a significant increase in wholesale refined oil prices.

Looking ahead, Meng Peng said that in the short term, under the influence of geopolitical disturbances, international crude oil prices are likely to remain high.

Liu Ting also mentioned that tensions in the Middle East remain intense, the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, and supply risks in the crude oil market continue, so international crude oil prices may stay elevated in the near future.

Source: The Paper Latest Oil Price Inquiry

Editor: Dai Yuchun

Reviewers: Zheng Wei, Sun Dianyang