I. The Real Reasons Behind the US Stock/Gold Sell-Off (Core Analysis)

- Oil surge → Passive liquidity contraction: Skyrocketing oil prices force the physical energy sector to occupy more capital, draining liquidity from financial markets, passively pushing up real interest rates, and directly suppressing US stocks, gold, and crypto.

- Contractionary inflation + Fed reluctant to cut rates: High oil prices drive inflation higher, forcing the Fed to maintain elevated rates or even avoid rate cuts, further raising real interest rates and continuously suppressing the three asset classes.

- Asset correlation collapse: US stocks/gold plunge → US Treasury yields spike → Reverse pressure on assets again, creating negative feedback; Witching Day only amplifies the move, not the root cause.

II. Outlook on US Stocks

- Bubble at highs is evident; don't chase unless there's a crash—wait for bargain prices after panic selling clears out.

- Each additional day of Strait of Hormuz tensions means one more day of liquidity contraction and weaker US stocks; even if fighting stops, it could be a bull trap.

III. Operational Recommendations

- Don't chase at highs; cash is king—pick up quality names after the crash.

- For short-term trading, strictly control position size; don't mistake corrective bounces for a trend reversal.