One sentence from Iran—global assets are taking a nosedive! This time oil prices are surging—who is the real winner?

Many people think that a rise in oil prices only means pricier gas, but what the capital markets truly fear is this: once oil prices get out of control, the entire logic of global liquidity changes.
When Trump originally rolled out the “Freedom Plan,” the market logic was very clear: lower energy prices → boost consumption → create expectations of easing → funds re-embrace risk assets. That’s why Bitcoin, U.S. stock tech, and AI-related themes all took off.
But the moment the Fujairah attack event happened, the whole script was suddenly rewritten. What does a surge in crude oil really mean? It means transportation, manufacturing, and consumption costs rise across the board. If U.S. inflation data starts to climb again, the Federal Reserve won’t just refrain from cutting rates—it may even continue to stay hawkish.
At this point, the most awkward one is Trump. Because the “Freedom Plan” fears oil prices rising the most. The plan was originally meant to let the market “have a good time,” but now the Middle East situation has forcibly hit the pause button.
As for the Oman negotiations, the biggest misjudgment the outside world has right now is that many people think Iran will definitely compromise. In reality, Iran’s biggest card in hand right now is enriched uranium. If it gives in easily, it’s like it’s voluntarily throwing away its own trump card. So negotiations will most likely fall into a “drag-it-out” approach—talk while pulling and tugging, apply pressure while testing the waters.
Next, the directions that could genuinely make money are already very obvious: energy stocks, gold, shipping, and defense/arms manufacturing. Because the more chaotic the market gets, the more favored safe-haven assets become. Meanwhile, the AI and high-valuation tech stocks that were hottest earlier on may cool off in the near term.
My trading strategy is only one sentence: when the market is panicking, don’t think about bottom-picking the whole world. First look at the U.S. dollar, then look at oil prices, and only then look at Bitcoin. Because what is truly determining the market’s direction right now isn’t the K-line charts—it’s the Strait of Hormuz.
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